Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a commanding lead in São Paulo’s October 4 gubernatorial race, supported by recent Quaest polling showing 42% first-round support against Fernando Haddad’s 27%. His advantage has widened slightly since August, driven by gains among independent voters and limited traction for smaller candidates. In second-round simulations, Tarcísio maintains a double-digit edge. Traders price his re-election probability near certainty due to incumbency strength, weak opposition fragmentation, and the absence of viable challengers capable of forcing a runoff or shifting momentum. Late developments such as major scandals, health issues, or sharp turnout changes could still alter outcomes before voting concludes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTarcísio de Freitas 98.2%
Fernando Haddad <1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$308,591 Wol.
$308,591 Wol.
Oct 3, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
98%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 98.2%
Fernando Haddad <1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$308,591 Wol.
$308,591 Wol.
Oct 3, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$146,132 Wol.
98%
Fernando Haddad
$51,461 Wol.
1%
Erika Hilton
$23,068 Wol.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$77,262 Wol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Wol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a commanding lead in São Paulo’s October 4 gubernatorial race, supported by recent Quaest polling showing 42% first-round support against Fernando Haddad’s 27%. His advantage has widened slightly since August, driven by gains among independent voters and limited traction for smaller candidates. In second-round simulations, Tarcísio maintains a double-digit edge. Traders price his re-election probability near certainty due to incumbency strength, weak opposition fragmentation, and the absence of viable challengers capable of forcing a runoff or shifting momentum. Late developments such as major scandals, health issues, or sharp turnout changes could still alter outcomes before voting concludes.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Rynek otwarty: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Wolumen
$308,591Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a commanding lead in São Paulo’s October 4 gubernatorial race, supported by recent Quaest polling showing 42% first-round support against Fernando Haddad’s 27%. His advantage has widened slightly since August, driven by gains among independent voters and limited traction for smaller candidates. In second-round simulations, Tarcísio maintains a double-digit edge. Traders price his re-election probability near certainty due to incumbency strength, weak opposition fragmentation, and the absence of viable challengers capable of forcing a runoff or shifting momentum. Late developments such as major scandals, health issues, or sharp turnout changes could still alter outcomes before voting concludes.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Wolumen
$308,591Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a commanding lead in São Paulo’s October 4 gubernatorial race, supported by recent Quaest polling showing 42% first-round support against Fernando Haddad’s 27%. His advantage has widened slightly since August, driven by gains among independent voters and limited traction for smaller candidates. In second-round simulations, Tarcísio maintains a double-digit edge. Traders price his re-election probability near certainty due to incumbency strength, weak opposition fragmentation, and the absence of viable challengers capable of forcing a runoff or shifting momentum. Late developments such as major scandals, health issues, or sharp turnout changes could still alter outcomes before voting concludes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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