Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign has conditioned participation in remaining first-round presidential debates on Lula’s attendance, a stance that aligns with both frontrunners’ risk-averse postures ahead of the October 4 vote. The senator skipped the August 23 Band debate alongside Lula, and a mid-September consortium event was canceled after neither confirmed. Recent reporting indicates Flávio’s team views Lula’s presence at the October 1 Globo debate as unlikely and is scheduling travel accordingly, while Lula’s side has cited format and invitee concerns in prior absences. With only the September 27 Record and October 1 Globo debates left before resolution, traders assign a 56.5% probability to “No,” reflecting the entrenched conditional approach and limited incentive for either campaign to alter course.