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icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Świat·Wybory Globalne

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Świat·Wybory Globalne

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Lula da Silva <5% 43%

Lula da Silva 5-10% 30%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 18.1%

Lula da Silva 10-15% 4.5%

Polymarket

$415,252 Wol.

Lula da Silva <5% 43%

Lula da Silva 5-10% 30%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 18.1%

Lula da Silva 10-15% 4.5%

Polymarket

$415,252 Wol.

icon for Lula da Silva 15%+

Lula da Silva 15%+

$18,333 Wol.

3%

icon for Lula da Silva 10-15%

Lula da Silva 10-15%

$37,176 Wol.

5%

icon for Lula da Silva 5-10%

Lula da Silva 5-10%

$30,145 Wol.

30%

icon for Lula da Silva <5%

Lula da Silva <5%

$37,262 Wol.

43%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+

Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+

$14,282 Wol.

1%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%

Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%

$14,078 Wol.

3%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

$23,775 Wol.

18%

icon for Renan Santos Victory

Renan Santos Victory

$215,430 Wol.

<1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas Victory

Tarcisio de Freitas Victory

$8,399 Wol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior Victory

Ratinho Júnior Victory

$7,742 Wol.

<1%

icon for Other

Other

$8,630 Wol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Meio/Ideia, Nexus, Quaest, and Datafolha show President Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by a shrinking margin in first-round voting intentions, now often within the margin of error around 38-39% to 35-37%, with Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado trailing in low single digits. Lula’s support has declined amid falling government approval ratings and revelations tied to Supreme Court proceedings, while Flávio Bolsonaro has gained from right-wing rallies and voter dissatisfaction with institutional figures. The October 4 first-round vote and high rejection rates for both frontrunners reinforce expectations of a narrow result, aligning with trader pricing that places the highest probabilities on Lula winning by less than 10 points or Flávio finishing within 5 points.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Wolumen
$415,252
Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Meio/Ideia, Nexus, Quaest, and Datafolha show President Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by a shrinking margin in first-round voting intentions, now often within the margin of error around 38-39% to 35-37%, with Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado trailing in low single digits. Lula’s support has declined amid falling government approval ratings and revelations tied to Supreme Court proceedings, while Flávio Bolsonaro has gained from right-wing rallies and voter dissatisfaction with institutional figures. The October 4 first-round vote and high rejection rates for both frontrunners reinforce expectations of a narrow result, aligning with trader pricing that places the highest probabilities on Lula winning by less than 10 points or Flávio finishing within 5 points.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Wolumen
$415,252
Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x2F5e3684c...

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Często zadawane pytania

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 11 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Lula da Silva <5%" z 43%, za nim "Lula da Silva 5-10%" z 30%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 43¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 43% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory" wygenerował $415.3K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Feb 11, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory", przeglądaj 11 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory" jest "Lula da Silva <5%" z 43%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 43% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Lula da Silva 5-10%" z 30%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.