Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the clear frontrunners to advance from Brazil’s October 4 first round, with recent polling aggregators showing the incumbent president in the high 30s to low 40s and the Liberal Party senator close behind in the mid-to-high 30s. Multiple surveys place the pair in a statistical tie or narrow edge in hypothetical runoffs, reflecting deep polarization between Lula’s Workers’ Party base and the right-wing electorate mobilized by the Bolsonaro name. Smaller candidates such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema register in low single digits or low teens and show no path to the top two. Every presidential election since 2002 has required a second round on October 25, and current data indicate the same outcome is probable absent a late surge by one of the minor contenders.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
$666,280 Wol.
Oct 3, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
98%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
96%
Renan Santos
1%
Romeu Zema
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
$666,280 Wol.
Flavio Bolsonaro
$110,938 Wol.
98%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$317,581 Wol.
96%
Renan Santos
$26,893 Wol.
1%
Romeu Zema
$1,448 Wol.
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
$86,608 Wol.
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$37,835 Wol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$918 Wol.
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$18,115 Wol.
1%
Fernando Haddad
$65,944 Wol.
<1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the clear frontrunners to advance from Brazil’s October 4 first round, with recent polling aggregators showing the incumbent president in the high 30s to low 40s and the Liberal Party senator close behind in the mid-to-high 30s. Multiple surveys place the pair in a statistical tie or narrow edge in hypothetical runoffs, reflecting deep polarization between Lula’s Workers’ Party base and the right-wing electorate mobilized by the Bolsonaro name. Smaller candidates such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema register in low single digits or low teens and show no path to the top two. Every presidential election since 2002 has required a second round on October 25, and current data indicate the same outcome is probable absent a late surge by one of the minor contenders.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rynek otwarty: Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ET
Wolumen
$666,280Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the clear frontrunners to advance from Brazil’s October 4 first round, with recent polling aggregators showing the incumbent president in the high 30s to low 40s and the Liberal Party senator close behind in the mid-to-high 30s. Multiple surveys place the pair in a statistical tie or narrow edge in hypothetical runoffs, reflecting deep polarization between Lula’s Workers’ Party base and the right-wing electorate mobilized by the Bolsonaro name. Smaller candidates such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema register in low single digits or low teens and show no path to the top two. Every presidential election since 2002 has required a second round on October 25, and current data indicate the same outcome is probable absent a late surge by one of the minor contenders.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Wolumen
$666,280Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the clear frontrunners to advance from Brazil’s October 4 first round, with recent polling aggregators showing the incumbent president in the high 30s to low 40s and the Liberal Party senator close behind in the mid-to-high 30s. Multiple surveys place the pair in a statistical tie or narrow edge in hypothetical runoffs, reflecting deep polarization between Lula’s Workers’ Party base and the right-wing electorate mobilized by the Bolsonaro name. Smaller candidates such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema register in low single digits or low teens and show no path to the top two. Every presidential election since 2002 has required a second round on October 25, and current data indicate the same outcome is probable absent a late surge by one of the minor contenders.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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