**Trader consensus in the Montana Senate election turnout market centers on the 500K-550K range (36%) as the leading outcome, followed by adjacent brackets around 400K-550K.** This reflects expectations for moderate midterm participation consistent with Montana’s recent history, where general election turnout of registered voters has ranged from about 55-65% in off-year cycles like 2022 (468K votes). With roughly 791,000 registered voters, the favored ranges imply roughly 50-70% turnout. The open-seat race features Republican Kurt Alme holding a double-digit lead in polling amid a divided non-Republican field (independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead), producing a low-competition dynamic that typically dampens mobilization compared with closer contests. The June primary saw 38% turnout, providing a baseline, while the November 3 general election lacks major late catalysts that could drive unusually high or suppressed participation. Historical patterns in similar solid-Republican midterms support this positioning as the current trader assessment of likely ballot volume.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日50万～55万 37%
45万〜50万 15.0%
35万未満 15%
40万〜45万 11%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
35万未満
9%
35万〜40万
8%
40万〜45万
11%
45万〜50万
15%
50万～55万
37%
55万〜60万
2%
60万票以上
1%
50万～55万 37%
45万〜50万 15.0%
35万未満 15%
40万〜45万 11%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
35万未満
$91 Vol.
9%
35万〜40万
$183 Vol.
8%
40万〜45万
$143 Vol.
11%
45万〜50万
$220 Vol.
15%
50万～55万
$755 Vol.
37%
55万〜60万
$1,092 Vol.
2%
60万票以上
$225 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus in the Montana Senate election turnout market centers on the 500K-550K range (36%) as the leading outcome, followed by adjacent brackets around 400K-550K.** This reflects expectations for moderate midterm participation consistent with Montana’s recent history, where general election turnout of registered voters has ranged from about 55-65% in off-year cycles like 2022 (468K votes).
With roughly 791,000 registered voters, the favored ranges imply roughly 50-70% turnout. The open-seat race features Republican Kurt Alme holding a double-digit lead in polling amid a divided non-Republican field (independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead), producing a low-competition dynamic that typically dampens mobilization compared with closer contests. The June primary saw 38% turnout, providing a baseline, while the November 3 general election lacks major late catalysts that could drive unusually high or suppressed participation. Historical patterns in similar solid-Republican midterms support this positioning as the current trader assessment of likely ballot volume.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 18, 2026, 10:12 AM ET
音量
$2,709終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 10:12 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus in the Montana Senate election turnout market centers on the 500K-550K range (36%) as the leading outcome, followed by adjacent brackets around 400K-550K.** This reflects expectations for moderate midterm participation consistent with Montana’s recent history, where general election turnout of registered voters has ranged from about 55-65% in off-year cycles like 2022 (468K votes).
With roughly 791,000 registered voters, the favored ranges imply roughly 50-70% turnout. The open-seat race features Republican Kurt Alme holding a double-digit lead in polling amid a divided non-Republican field (independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead), producing a low-competition dynamic that typically dampens mobilization compared with closer contests. The June primary saw 38% turnout, providing a baseline, while the November 3 general election lacks major late catalysts that could drive unusually high or suppressed participation. Historical patterns in similar solid-Republican midterms support this positioning as the current trader assessment of likely ballot volume.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$2,709終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 10:12 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus in the Montana Senate election turnout market centers on the 500K-550K range (36%) as the leading outcome, followed by adjacent brackets around 400K-550K.** This reflects expectations for moderate midterm participation consistent with Montana’s recent history, where general election turnout of registered voters has ranged from about 55-65% in off-year cycles like 2022 (468K votes). With roughly 791,000 registered voters, the favored ranges imply roughly 50-70% turnout. The open-seat race features Republican Kurt Alme holding a double-digit lead in polling amid a divided non-Republican field (independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead), producing a low-competition dynamic that typically dampens mobilization compared with closer contests. The June primary saw 38% turnout, providing a baseline, while the November 3 general election lacks major late catalysts that could drive unusually high or suppressed participation. Historical patterns in similar solid-Republican midterms support this positioning as the current trader assessment of likely ballot volume.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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