Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election between Republican incumbent Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon shows trader consensus clustering on 7.75M–8.25M total votes cast, driven by registration advantages favoring Republicans by roughly 1.5 million and primary turnout patterns that amplified GOP participation despite statewide participation near 25 percent. Post-August primary data highlighted disproportionate Republican ballot shares alongside stronger early and mail voting efficiency for one party, while no-party-affiliation mobilization remains a key swing variable. Polling averages showing Moody ahead by 8–10 points and Florida's continued rightward shift since 2024 reinforce expectations of moderate overall turnout, with separation likely hinging on final get-out-the-vote intensity and independent participation rates before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日800万〜825万 34%
775万〜800万 32.0%
750万〜775万 13.7%
875万〜900万 7%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
700万未満
1%
700万〜725万
1%
725万～750万
7%
750万〜775万
14%
775万〜800万
30%
800万〜825万
34%
825万〜850万
18%
850万～875万
3%
875万〜900万
7%
900万以上
5%
800万〜825万 34%
775万〜800万 32.0%
750万〜775万 13.7%
875万〜900万 7%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
700万未満
$85 Vol.
1%
700万〜725万
$537 Vol.
1%
725万～750万
$1,594 Vol.
7%
750万〜775万
$98 Vol.
14%
775万〜800万
$134 Vol.
30%
800万〜825万
$1,231 Vol.
34%
825万〜850万
$103 Vol.
18%
850万～875万
$1,185 Vol.
3%
875万〜900万
$92 Vol.
7%
900万以上
$45 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election between Republican incumbent Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon shows trader consensus clustering on 7.75M–8.25M total votes cast, driven by registration advantages favoring Republicans by roughly 1.5 million and primary turnout patterns that amplified GOP participation despite statewide participation near 25 percent. Post-August primary data highlighted disproportionate Republican ballot shares alongside stronger early and mail voting efficiency for one party, while no-party-affiliation mobilization remains a key swing variable. Polling averages showing Moody ahead by 8–10 points and Florida's continued rightward shift since 2024 reinforce expectations of moderate overall turnout, with separation likely hinging on final get-out-the-vote intensity and independent participation rates before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 18, 2026, 10:06 AM ET
音量
$5,104終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 10:06 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election between Republican incumbent Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon shows trader consensus clustering on 7.75M–8.25M total votes cast, driven by registration advantages favoring Republicans by roughly 1.5 million and primary turnout patterns that amplified GOP participation despite statewide participation near 25 percent. Post-August primary data highlighted disproportionate Republican ballot shares alongside stronger early and mail voting efficiency for one party, while no-party-affiliation mobilization remains a key swing variable. Polling averages showing Moody ahead by 8–10 points and Florida's continued rightward shift since 2024 reinforce expectations of moderate overall turnout, with separation likely hinging on final get-out-the-vote intensity and independent participation rates before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$5,104終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 10:06 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election between Republican incumbent Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon shows trader consensus clustering on 7.75M–8.25M total votes cast, driven by registration advantages favoring Republicans by roughly 1.5 million and primary turnout patterns that amplified GOP participation despite statewide participation near 25 percent. Post-August primary data highlighted disproportionate Republican ballot shares alongside stronger early and mail voting efficiency for one party, while no-party-affiliation mobilization remains a key swing variable. Polling averages showing Moody ahead by 8–10 points and Florida's continued rightward shift since 2024 reinforce expectations of moderate overall turnout, with separation likely hinging on final get-out-the-vote intensity and independent participation rates before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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