The non-competitive nature of New Mexico’s 2026 Senate contest, with incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján facing a minimally funded Republican challenger in a race rated Safe or Solid Democratic by forecasters, spreads trader probabilities across multiple turnout brackets. Primary participation reached 346,460 ballots (24.6%) in June under new semi-open rules and permanent absentee access, above recent averages, yet general-election mobilization remains limited by low campaign intensity and Democratic registration advantages. Midterm turnout patterns and reliance on mail voting create uncertainty, with recent polling showing Luján leading by double digits but little evidence of heightened enthusiasm. Shifts in absentee usage, late national or state developments affecting voter motivation, or election-day weather could widen separation among the leading ranges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日75万〜80万 30%
65万〜70万 29%
55万〜60万 27.9%
70万～75万 26%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
55万未満
10%
55万〜60万
28%
60万〜65万
24%
65万〜70万
29%
70万～75万
26%
75万〜80万
30%
80万～85万
24%
85万以上
24%
75万〜80万 30%
65万〜70万 29%
55万〜60万 27.9%
70万～75万 26%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
55万未満
$24 Vol.
10%
55万〜60万
$24 Vol.
28%
60万〜65万
$147 Vol.
24%
65万〜70万
$24 Vol.
29%
70万～75万
$24 Vol.
26%
75万〜80万
$24 Vol.
30%
80万～85万
$24 Vol.
24%
85万以上
$24 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The non-competitive nature of New Mexico’s 2026 Senate contest, with incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján facing a minimally funded Republican challenger in a race rated Safe or Solid Democratic by forecasters, spreads trader probabilities across multiple turnout brackets. Primary participation reached 346,460 ballots (24.6%) in June under new semi-open rules and permanent absentee access, above recent averages, yet general-election mobilization remains limited by low campaign intensity and Democratic registration advantages. Midterm turnout patterns and reliance on mail voting create uncertainty, with recent polling showing Luján leading by double digits but little evidence of heightened enthusiasm. Shifts in absentee usage, late national or state developments affecting voter motivation, or election-day weather could widen separation among the leading ranges.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET
音量
$315終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The non-competitive nature of New Mexico’s 2026 Senate contest, with incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján facing a minimally funded Republican challenger in a race rated Safe or Solid Democratic by forecasters, spreads trader probabilities across multiple turnout brackets. Primary participation reached 346,460 ballots (24.6%) in June under new semi-open rules and permanent absentee access, above recent averages, yet general-election mobilization remains limited by low campaign intensity and Democratic registration advantages. Midterm turnout patterns and reliance on mail voting create uncertainty, with recent polling showing Luján leading by double digits but little evidence of heightened enthusiasm. Shifts in absentee usage, late national or state developments affecting voter motivation, or election-day weather could widen separation among the leading ranges.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$315終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The non-competitive nature of New Mexico’s 2026 Senate contest, with incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján facing a minimally funded Republican challenger in a race rated Safe or Solid Democratic by forecasters, spreads trader probabilities across multiple turnout brackets. Primary participation reached 346,460 ballots (24.6%) in June under new semi-open rules and permanent absentee access, above recent averages, yet general-election mobilization remains limited by low campaign intensity and Democratic registration advantages. Midterm turnout patterns and reliance on mail voting create uncertainty, with recent polling showing Luján leading by double digits but little evidence of heightened enthusiasm. Shifts in absentee usage, late national or state developments affecting voter motivation, or election-day weather could widen separation among the leading ranges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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