The competitive U.S. Senate matchup between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, rated a toss-up by most forecasters, combined with an open governor's race, is sustaining elevated interest and keeping first-round turnout expectations tightly clustered in the 275,000–320,000 range. Recent polling averages show the candidates within a few points, with Peltola holding a narrow edge in some surveys after outperforming Sullivan in the August primary. Absent a presidential contest at the top of the ticket, participation is projected to exceed the 2022 midterm but fall short of 2024 presidential levels, when over 340,000 ballots were cast. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current market pricing underscores uncertainty over mobilization of independent voters and overall engagement in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日290K-305K 41%
275,000〜290,000 29%
305K-320K 23%
26万〜27万5千 8.5%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
23万未満
1%
23万〜24万5千
<1%
245,000〜260,000
1%
26万〜27万5千
8%
275,000〜290,000
30%
290K-305K
41%
305K-320K
27%
32万票以上
<1%
290K-305K 41%
275,000〜290,000 29%
305K-320K 23%
26万〜27万5千 8.5%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
23万未満
$432 Vol.
1%
23万〜24万5千
$426 Vol.
<1%
245,000〜260,000
$450 Vol.
1%
26万〜27万5千
$563 Vol.
8%
275,000〜290,000
$1,077 Vol.
30%
290K-305K
$1,348 Vol.
41%
305K-320K
$1,281 Vol.
27%
32万票以上
$458 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The competitive U.S. Senate matchup between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, rated a toss-up by most forecasters, combined with an open governor's race, is sustaining elevated interest and keeping first-round turnout expectations tightly clustered in the 275,000–320,000 range. Recent polling averages show the candidates within a few points, with Peltola holding a narrow edge in some surveys after outperforming Sullivan in the August primary. Absent a presidential contest at the top of the ticket, participation is projected to exceed the 2022 midterm but fall short of 2024 presidential levels, when over 340,000 ballots were cast. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current market pricing underscores uncertainty over mobilization of independent voters and overall engagement in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ET
音量
$6,036終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The competitive U.S. Senate matchup between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, rated a toss-up by most forecasters, combined with an open governor's race, is sustaining elevated interest and keeping first-round turnout expectations tightly clustered in the 275,000–320,000 range. Recent polling averages show the candidates within a few points, with Peltola holding a narrow edge in some surveys after outperforming Sullivan in the August primary. Absent a presidential contest at the top of the ticket, participation is projected to exceed the 2022 midterm but fall short of 2024 presidential levels, when over 340,000 ballots were cast. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current market pricing underscores uncertainty over mobilization of independent voters and overall engagement in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$6,036終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The competitive U.S. Senate matchup between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, rated a toss-up by most forecasters, combined with an open governor's race, is sustaining elevated interest and keeping first-round turnout expectations tightly clustered in the 275,000–320,000 range. Recent polling averages show the candidates within a few points, with Peltola holding a narrow edge in some surveys after outperforming Sullivan in the August primary. Absent a presidential contest at the top of the ticket, participation is projected to exceed the 2022 midterm but fall short of 2024 presidential levels, when over 340,000 ballots were cast. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current market pricing underscores uncertainty over mobilization of independent voters and overall engagement in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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