Incumbent Republican Jim Risch holds a commanding position in the 2026 Idaho Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, evidenced by large margins in recent presidential and statewide contests, combined with his long tenure since 2009 and strong primary performance securing the nomination with over 67% of the vote. Recent developments include the withdrawal of Democratic nominee David Roth after limited fundraising and party hesitation, leaving independent Todd Achilles—who resigned his state House seat to run—as the main challenger amid mixed polling that still shows Risch ahead by 25 points or more on average. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, including Risch's fundraising edge and broad name recognition. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-breaking scandals, health developments, or unusually high independent turnout, though structural barriers in this solidly Republican electorate limit realistic upset prospects ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ジム・リッシュ（共和党） 95.7%
民主党 2.5%
トッド・アキリーズ（無所属） 1.1%
$33,190 Vol.
$33,190 Vol.
2026/11/02
ジム・リッシュ（共和党）
96%
民主党
2%
トッド・アキリーズ（無所属）
1%
ジム・リッシュ（共和党） 95.7%
民主党 2.5%
トッド・アキリーズ（無所属） 1.1%
$33,190 Vol.
$33,190 Vol.
2026/11/02
ジム・リッシュ（共和党）
$18,618 Vol.
96%
民主党
$14,397 Vol.
2%
トッド・アキリーズ（無所属）
$175 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Jim Risch holds a commanding position in the 2026 Idaho Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, evidenced by large margins in recent presidential and statewide contests, combined with his long tenure since 2009 and strong primary performance securing the nomination with over 67% of the vote. Recent developments include the withdrawal of Democratic nominee David Roth after limited fundraising and party hesitation, leaving independent Todd Achilles—who resigned his state House seat to run—as the main challenger amid mixed polling that still shows Risch ahead by 25 points or more on average. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, including Risch's fundraising edge and broad name recognition. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-breaking scandals, health developments, or unusually high independent turnout, though structural barriers in this solidly Republican electorate limit realistic upset prospects ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$33,190終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Jim Risch holds a commanding position in the 2026 Idaho Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, evidenced by large margins in recent presidential and statewide contests, combined with his long tenure since 2009 and strong primary performance securing the nomination with over 67% of the vote. Recent developments include the withdrawal of Democratic nominee David Roth after limited fundraising and party hesitation, leaving independent Todd Achilles—who resigned his state House seat to run—as the main challenger amid mixed polling that still shows Risch ahead by 25 points or more on average. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, including Risch's fundraising edge and broad name recognition. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-breaking scandals, health developments, or unusually high independent turnout, though structural barriers in this solidly Republican electorate limit realistic upset prospects ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$33,190終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jim Risch holds a commanding position in the 2026 Idaho Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, evidenced by large margins in recent presidential and statewide contests, combined with his long tenure since 2009 and strong primary performance securing the nomination with over 67% of the vote. Recent developments include the withdrawal of Democratic nominee David Roth after limited fundraising and party hesitation, leaving independent Todd Achilles—who resigned his state House seat to run—as the main challenger amid mixed polling that still shows Risch ahead by 25 points or more on average. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, including Risch's fundraising edge and broad name recognition. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-breaking scandals, health developments, or unusually high independent turnout, though structural barriers in this solidly Republican electorate limit realistic upset prospects ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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