Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in recent presidential results and all major forecasters rating the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Merkley secured his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary and benefits from established name recognition after serving since 2009. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator who prevailed in a fragmented May primary, faces structural headwinds with no general election polls indicating meaningful movement. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, though late national shifts, turnout surprises, or unexpected developments before November 3 could still influence the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/02
ジェフ・マークリ―（民主党）
97%
デイビッド・ブロック・スミス（共和党）
2%
新規
新規
2026/11/02
ジェフ・マークリ―（民主党）
$3,650 Vol.
97%
デイビッド・ブロック・スミス（共和党）
$3,076 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in recent presidential results and all major forecasters rating the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Merkley secured his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary and benefits from established name recognition after serving since 2009. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator who prevailed in a fragmented May primary, faces structural headwinds with no general election polls indicating meaningful movement. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, though late national shifts, turnout surprises, or unexpected developments before November 3 could still influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
音量
$6,726終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in recent presidential results and all major forecasters rating the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Merkley secured his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary and benefits from established name recognition after serving since 2009. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator who prevailed in a fragmented May primary, faces structural headwinds with no general election polls indicating meaningful movement. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, though late national shifts, turnout surprises, or unexpected developments before November 3 could still influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$6,726終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in recent presidential results and all major forecasters rating the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Merkley secured his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary and benefits from established name recognition after serving since 2009. Republican nominee David Brock Smith, a state senator who prevailed in a fragmented May primary, faces structural headwinds with no general election polls indicating meaningful movement. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, though late national shifts, turnout surprises, or unexpected developments before November 3 could still influence the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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