Persistent low water levels at the Kaub gauge, hovering near 25 cm amid ongoing drought and below-average precipitation across the Alpine and upper Rhine catchment, anchor current trader pricing. Recent readings remain far below the 77 cm threshold for normal navigation, with only modest gains from scattered southern German rainfall failing to reverse the trend. Hydrological models point to gradual recovery potentially aligning with October flows, yet extended dry forecasts sustain notable probability on delayed rebound past November 1. The close split between the leading October window and no-return-before-November outcomes reflects uncertainty over near-term rainfall volume and timing, while the slim September chance captures the limited window remaining before seasonal lows typically ease.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuando il fiume Reno tornerà a livelli normali?
Quando il fiume Reno tornerà a livelli normali?
1 - 31 ottobre 2026 38%
Nessun ritorno prima del 1° novembre 2026 32%
15 - 30 settembre 2026 22%
Prima del 15 settembre 2026 4.9%
$15,358 Vol.
$15,358 Vol.
15 set 2026
Prima del 15 settembre 2026
5%
15 - 30 settembre 2026
22%
1 - 31 ottobre 2026
38%
Nessun ritorno prima del 1° novembre 2026
32%
1 - 31 ottobre 2026 38%
Nessun ritorno prima del 1° novembre 2026 32%
15 - 30 settembre 2026 22%
Prima del 15 settembre 2026 4.9%
$15,358 Vol.
$15,358 Vol.
15 set 2026
Prima del 15 settembre 2026
$5,476 Vol.
5%
15 - 30 settembre 2026
$3,864 Vol.
22%
1 - 31 ottobre 2026
$3,816 Vol.
38%
Nessun ritorno prima del 1° novembre 2026
$2,202 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).Persistent low water levels at the Kaub gauge, hovering near 25 cm amid ongoing drought and below-average precipitation across the Alpine and upper Rhine catchment, anchor current trader pricing. Recent readings remain far below the 77 cm threshold for normal navigation, with only modest gains from scattered southern German rainfall failing to reverse the trend. Hydrological models point to gradual recovery potentially aligning with October flows, yet extended dry forecasts sustain notable probability on delayed rebound past November 1. The close split between the leading October window and no-return-before-November outcomes reflects uncertainty over near-term rainfall volume and timing, while the slim September chance captures the limited window remaining before seasonal lows typically ease.
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
Mercato aperto: Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ET
Volume
$15,358Data di fine
1 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).Persistent low water levels at the Kaub gauge, hovering near 25 cm amid ongoing drought and below-average precipitation across the Alpine and upper Rhine catchment, anchor current trader pricing. Recent readings remain far below the 77 cm threshold for normal navigation, with only modest gains from scattered southern German rainfall failing to reverse the trend. Hydrological models point to gradual recovery potentially aligning with October flows, yet extended dry forecasts sustain notable probability on delayed rebound past November 1. The close split between the leading October window and no-return-before-November outcomes reflects uncertainty over near-term rainfall volume and timing, while the slim September chance captures the limited window remaining before seasonal lows typically ease.
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
Volume
$15,358Data di fine
1 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...Persistent low water levels at the Kaub gauge, hovering near 25 cm amid ongoing drought and below-average precipitation across the Alpine and upper Rhine catchment, anchor current trader pricing. Recent readings remain far below the 77 cm threshold for normal navigation, with only modest gains from scattered southern German rainfall failing to reverse the trend. Hydrological models point to gradual recovery potentially aligning with October flows, yet extended dry forecasts sustain notable probability on delayed rebound past November 1. The close split between the leading October window and no-return-before-November outcomes reflects uncertainty over near-term rainfall volume and timing, while the slim September chance captures the limited window remaining before seasonal lows typically ease.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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