Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh have driven market-implied odds heavily toward sequences involving rate hikes at the September 15–16 or October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meetings, positioning “Other” at 84.5% as the leading outcome. July’s 9-3 hold at the 3.50–3.75% target range—with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase—established the first “pause,” yet subsequent hotter CPI prints and stable labor-market data around 4.1% unemployment have kept tightening expectations elevated. The September meeting’s dot plot and incoming economic releases remain key swing factors that could further shift trader consensus on the exact path through October.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoOther 85%
Pause–Pause–Pause 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.8%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.0%
$761,052 Vol.
$761,052 Vol.
28 ott 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
13%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
85%
Other 85%
Pause–Pause–Pause 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.8%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.0%
$761,052 Vol.
$761,052 Vol.
28 ott 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$256,363 Vol.
13%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$64,078 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$43,698 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$29,422 Vol.
1%
Other
$324,004 Vol.
85%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh have driven market-implied odds heavily toward sequences involving rate hikes at the September 15–16 or October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meetings, positioning “Other” at 84.5% as the leading outcome. July’s 9-3 hold at the 3.50–3.75% target range—with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase—established the first “pause,” yet subsequent hotter CPI prints and stable labor-market data around 4.1% unemployment have kept tightening expectations elevated. The September meeting’s dot plot and incoming economic releases remain key swing factors that could further shift trader consensus on the exact path through October.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$761,052Data di fine
28 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh have driven market-implied odds heavily toward sequences involving rate hikes at the September 15–16 or October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meetings, positioning “Other” at 84.5% as the leading outcome. July’s 9-3 hold at the 3.50–3.75% target range—with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase—established the first “pause,” yet subsequent hotter CPI prints and stable labor-market data around 4.1% unemployment have kept tightening expectations elevated. The September meeting’s dot plot and incoming economic releases remain key swing factors that could further shift trader consensus on the exact path through October.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$761,052Data di fine
28 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh have driven market-implied odds heavily toward sequences involving rate hikes at the September 15–16 or October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meetings, positioning “Other” at 84.5% as the leading outcome. July’s 9-3 hold at the 3.50–3.75% target range—with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase—established the first “pause,” yet subsequent hotter CPI prints and stable labor-market data around 4.1% unemployment have kept tightening expectations elevated. The September meeting’s dot plot and incoming economic releases remain key swing factors that could further shift trader consensus on the exact path through October.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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