The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range since late 2025, amid solid GDP growth, unemployment near 4.1-4.3%, and elevated but stabilizing inflation around 3.3-3.7%, underpins the 94% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Recent FOMC communications and projections from the June and July meetings signal a preference for maintaining or potentially tightening policy to address supply-driven price pressures, including those tied to Middle East developments, rather than easing. With no acute recession signals or financial stability threats evident in labor data or leading indicators, traders view standard policy adjustments as sufficient. A major adverse shock—such as sharp deterioration in employment or renewed inflation spikes—could still prompt reconsideration ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
6% probabilità
$209,014 Vol.
$209,014 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
6% probabilità
$209,014 Vol.
$209,014 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range since late 2025, amid solid GDP growth, unemployment near 4.1-4.3%, and elevated but stabilizing inflation around 3.3-3.7%, underpins the 94% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Recent FOMC communications and projections from the June and July meetings signal a preference for maintaining or potentially tightening policy to address supply-driven price pressures, including those tied to Middle East developments, rather than easing. With no acute recession signals or financial stability threats evident in labor data or leading indicators, traders view standard policy adjustments as sufficient. A major adverse shock—such as sharp deterioration in employment or renewed inflation spikes—could still prompt reconsideration ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$209,014Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range since late 2025, amid solid GDP growth, unemployment near 4.1-4.3%, and elevated but stabilizing inflation around 3.3-3.7%, underpins the 94% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Recent FOMC communications and projections from the June and July meetings signal a preference for maintaining or potentially tightening policy to address supply-driven price pressures, including those tied to Middle East developments, rather than easing. With no acute recession signals or financial stability threats evident in labor data or leading indicators, traders view standard policy adjustments as sufficient. A major adverse shock—such as sharp deterioration in employment or renewed inflation spikes—could still prompt reconsideration ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$209,014Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range since late 2025, amid solid GDP growth, unemployment near 4.1-4.3%, and elevated but stabilizing inflation around 3.3-3.7%, underpins the 94% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Recent FOMC communications and projections from the June and July meetings signal a preference for maintaining or potentially tightening policy to address supply-driven price pressures, including those tied to Middle East developments, rather than easing. With no acute recession signals or financial stability threats evident in labor data or leading indicators, traders view standard policy adjustments as sufficient. A major adverse shock—such as sharp deterioration in employment or renewed inflation spikes—could still prompt reconsideration ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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