**Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by earlier energy price spikes from Middle East tensions and AI-related demand, combined with a resilient labor market, are anchoring trader expectations for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting.** Recent data, including August’s 162,000 job gain and steady 4.1% unemployment, have reinforced views of stable conditions that reduce urgency for easing while supporting caution on cuts. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50%-3.75% through mid-2026 and year-end projections clustered near 3.6%-4.1%, the 60.5% implied probability of no change at the January meeting reflects aggregated trader consensus on a data-dependent pause. Key upcoming catalysts include September CPI and PPI releases plus the September 15-16 FOMC decision, which could shift odds if inflation moderates faster than expected or labor data weakens.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNo change 61%
Aumento di 25 punti base 24%
25 bps decrease 13%
50+ bps decrease 3.5%
$68,368 Vol.
$68,368 Vol.
27 gen 2027
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
13%
No change
61%
Aumento di 25 punti base
24%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
2%
No change 61%
Aumento di 25 punti base 24%
25 bps decrease 13%
50+ bps decrease 3.5%
$68,368 Vol.
$68,368 Vol.
27 gen 2027
50+ bps decrease
$13,744 Vol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$14,301 Vol.
13%
No change
$20,220 Vol.
61%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$16,643 Vol.
24%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$3,461 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by earlier energy price spikes from Middle East tensions and AI-related demand, combined with a resilient labor market, are anchoring trader expectations for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting.**
Recent data, including August’s 162,000 job gain and steady 4.1% unemployment, have reinforced views of stable conditions that reduce urgency for easing while supporting caution on cuts. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50%-3.75% through mid-2026 and year-end projections clustered near 3.6%-4.1%, the 60.5% implied probability of no change at the January meeting reflects aggregated trader consensus on a data-dependent pause. Key upcoming catalysts include September CPI and PPI releases plus the September 15-16 FOMC decision, which could shift odds if inflation moderates faster than expected or labor data weakens.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volume
$68,368Data di fine
27 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by earlier energy price spikes from Middle East tensions and AI-related demand, combined with a resilient labor market, are anchoring trader expectations for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting.**
Recent data, including August’s 162,000 job gain and steady 4.1% unemployment, have reinforced views of stable conditions that reduce urgency for easing while supporting caution on cuts. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50%-3.75% through mid-2026 and year-end projections clustered near 3.6%-4.1%, the 60.5% implied probability of no change at the January meeting reflects aggregated trader consensus on a data-dependent pause. Key upcoming catalysts include September CPI and PPI releases plus the September 15-16 FOMC decision, which could shift odds if inflation moderates faster than expected or labor data weakens.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$68,368Data di fine
27 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by earlier energy price spikes from Middle East tensions and AI-related demand, combined with a resilient labor market, are anchoring trader expectations for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting.** Recent data, including August’s 162,000 job gain and steady 4.1% unemployment, have reinforced views of stable conditions that reduce urgency for easing while supporting caution on cuts. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50%-3.75% through mid-2026 and year-end projections clustered near 3.6%-4.1%, the 60.5% implied probability of no change at the January meeting reflects aggregated trader consensus on a data-dependent pause. Key upcoming catalysts include September CPI and PPI releases plus the September 15-16 FOMC decision, which could shift odds if inflation moderates faster than expected or labor data weakens.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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