Recent economic data showing persistent inflation pressures through the third quarter of 2026 have positioned a 25 basis point rate hike as the leading outcome for the December FOMC meeting, reflected in the 68.5% market-implied probability. Resilient labor market conditions and firm consumer spending have tempered expectations for no change, now at 30.5%, as traders interpret the Fed's data-dependent stance as favoring further tightening to reach the 2% inflation target. Key upcoming releases, including the October CPI and employment reports, alongside the September FOMC minutes, represent near-term catalysts that could shift these odds by clarifying the balance of risks in monetary policy.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato25 bps increase 69%
Nessun cambiamento 31%
50+ bps increase 1.8%
25 bps decrease 1.7%
$976,789 Vol.
$976,789 Vol.
9 dic 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
2%
Nessun cambiamento
31%
25 bps increase
69%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 69%
Nessun cambiamento 31%
50+ bps increase 1.8%
25 bps decrease 1.7%
$976,789 Vol.
$976,789 Vol.
9 dic 2026
50+ bps decrease
$153,859 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$211,060 Vol.
2%
Nessun cambiamento
$195,650 Vol.
31%
25 bps increase
$268,868 Vol.
69%
50+ bps increase
$147,354 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent economic data showing persistent inflation pressures through the third quarter of 2026 have positioned a 25 basis point rate hike as the leading outcome for the December FOMC meeting, reflected in the 68.5% market-implied probability. Resilient labor market conditions and firm consumer spending have tempered expectations for no change, now at 30.5%, as traders interpret the Fed's data-dependent stance as favoring further tightening to reach the 2% inflation target. Key upcoming releases, including the October CPI and employment reports, alongside the September FOMC minutes, represent near-term catalysts that could shift these odds by clarifying the balance of risks in monetary policy.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$976,789Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent economic data showing persistent inflation pressures through the third quarter of 2026 have positioned a 25 basis point rate hike as the leading outcome for the December FOMC meeting, reflected in the 68.5% market-implied probability. Resilient labor market conditions and firm consumer spending have tempered expectations for no change, now at 30.5%, as traders interpret the Fed's data-dependent stance as favoring further tightening to reach the 2% inflation target. Key upcoming releases, including the October CPI and employment reports, alongside the September FOMC minutes, represent near-term catalysts that could shift these odds by clarifying the balance of risks in monetary policy.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$976,789Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent economic data showing persistent inflation pressures through the third quarter of 2026 have positioned a 25 basis point rate hike as the leading outcome for the December FOMC meeting, reflected in the 68.5% market-implied probability. Resilient labor market conditions and firm consumer spending have tempered expectations for no change, now at 30.5%, as traders interpret the Fed's data-dependent stance as favoring further tightening to reach the 2% inflation target. Key upcoming releases, including the October CPI and employment reports, alongside the September FOMC minutes, represent near-term catalysts that could shift these odds by clarifying the balance of risks in monetary policy.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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