**Recent legislative outcomes and the 2026 election calendar have shaped trader expectations.** Republicans enacted the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025, which permanently extended key 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act business provisions and added targeted relief such as expensing and R&D rules while retaining the 21% corporate rate. Proposals to lower the statutory rate further, including targeted reductions to 15% for domestic manufacturing, were not included. With midterm elections approaching in November 2026, Senate Republicans have shown limited appetite for another reconciliation package this year due to slim margins, competing priorities, and risks to vulnerable members. This timeline leaves little legislative window for a corporate rate cut before 2027, supporting the current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated11% chance
$16,693 Vol.
$16,693 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
11% chance
$16,693 Vol.
$16,693 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the corporate tax rate in the United States below 21% at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
**Recent legislative outcomes and the 2026 election calendar have shaped trader expectations.** Republicans enacted the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025, which permanently extended key 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act business provisions and added targeted relief such as expensing and R&D rules while retaining the 21% corporate rate. Proposals to lower the statutory rate further, including targeted reductions to 15% for domestic manufacturing, were not included. With midterm elections approaching in November 2026, Senate Republicans have shown limited appetite for another reconciliation package this year due to slim margins, competing priorities, and risks to vulnerable members. This timeline leaves little legislative window for a corporate rate cut before 2027, supporting the current market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the corporate tax rate in the United States below 21% at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 1:03 PM ET
Volume
$16,693End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the corporate tax rate in the United States below 21% at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
**Recent legislative outcomes and the 2026 election calendar have shaped trader expectations.** Republicans enacted the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025, which permanently extended key 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act business provisions and added targeted relief such as expensing and R&D rules while retaining the 21% corporate rate. Proposals to lower the statutory rate further, including targeted reductions to 15% for domestic manufacturing, were not included. With midterm elections approaching in November 2026, Senate Republicans have shown limited appetite for another reconciliation package this year due to slim margins, competing priorities, and risks to vulnerable members. This timeline leaves little legislative window for a corporate rate cut before 2027, supporting the current market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the corporate tax rate in the United States below 21% at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$16,693End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent legislative outcomes and the 2026 election calendar have shaped trader expectations.** Republicans enacted the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025, which permanently extended key 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act business provisions and added targeted relief such as expensing and R&D rules while retaining the 21% corporate rate. Proposals to lower the statutory rate further, including targeted reductions to 15% for domestic manufacturing, were not included. With midterm elections approaching in November 2026, Senate Republicans have shown limited appetite for another reconciliation package this year due to slim margins, competing priorities, and risks to vulnerable members. This timeline leaves little legislative window for a corporate rate cut before 2027, supporting the current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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