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Politics·Venezuela

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

icon for Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Politics·Venezuela

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

7% chance
Polymarket

$3,292,479 Vol.

7% chance
Polymarket

$3,292,479 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The Trump administration has emphasized economic sanctions, secondary tariffs on oil suppliers, and diplomatic pressure to isolate Cuba rather than direct military intervention, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio consistently favoring a strategy of regime weakening through “slow suffocation” by 2029. Military planning and carrier deployments occurred earlier in the year alongside rhetoric about possible limited operations, but these have not produced action amid competing priorities such as the Iran conflict and a preference for non-kinetic tools like the indictment of Raúl Castro and aid offers tied to reforms. Cuba’s deepening economic crisis has not triggered the full-scale invasion some observers once feared, supporting the current trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% implied probability of no U.S. invasion occurring in 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$3,292,479
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The Trump administration has emphasized economic sanctions, secondary tariffs on oil suppliers, and diplomatic pressure to isolate Cuba rather than direct military intervention, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio consistently favoring a strategy of regime weakening through “slow suffocation” by 2029. Military planning and carrier deployments occurred earlier in the year alongside rhetoric about possible limited operations, but these have not produced action amid competing priorities such as the Iran conflict and a preference for non-kinetic tools like the indictment of Raúl Castro and aid offers tied to reforms. Cuba’s deepening economic crisis has not triggered the full-scale invasion some observers once feared, supporting the current trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% implied probability of no U.S. invasion occurring in 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$3,292,479
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 7% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 7¢, the market collectively assigns a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?" has generated $3.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?" is 7% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.