Strong bilateral security cooperation under Colombia’s new President Abelardo de la Espriella, inaugurated in August 2026, underpins trader expectations that the United States will not invade. The right-leaning Colombian leader has aligned closely with the Trump administration on counternarcotics, inviting joint operations against trafficking groups, expanded U.S. intelligence support, and potential equipment upgrades as part of the Shield of the Americas coalition. Recent high-level visits, including by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, produced agreements on critical minerals, energy, and a pledged $1 billion security package, while both sides emphasize partnership over unilateral action. Historical alliance patterns and shared interests in regional stability further reinforce the current trader consensus reflected in the 97.7% probability for No. Unlikely shifts, such as a sudden collapse in diplomatic ties, major escalation involving Venezuela, or policy reversals in Bogotá, remain the primary variables that could alter assessments before year-end.