**Trader consensus assigns the highest probability (54.4%) to no further cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting a period of relative stability after multiple 2026 exits.** Earlier in the year, President Trump removed Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi, while Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard departed amid performance concerns, investigations, or personal circumstances. White House staff turnover, including Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt’s planned August exit, has also been notable. Among remaining officials, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and others such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum currently face limited public pressure for immediate change. With midterm elections approaching in November 2026, the market pricing suggests traders anticipate continuity in Senate-confirmed cabinet roles through year-end absent new catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNone before 2027 54.4%
Pete Hegseth 5.5%
Susie Wiles 5.4%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 3.4%
$53,391 Vol.
$53,391 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
54%
Pete Hegseth
6%
Susie Wiles
5%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
3%
Doug Burgum
3%
Scott Bessent
3%
Kelly Loeffler
2%
Lee Zeldin
2%
John Ratcliffe
2%
Marco Rubio
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
Sean Duffy
1%
Scott Turner
1%
J.D. Vance
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Russell T. Vought
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
Chris Wright
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
None before 2027 54.4%
Pete Hegseth 5.5%
Susie Wiles 5.4%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 3.4%
$53,391 Vol.
$53,391 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
$13,401 Vol.
54%
Pete Hegseth
$1,272 Vol.
6%
Susie Wiles
$3,683 Vol.
5%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$19,194 Vol.
3%
Doug Burgum
$1,114 Vol.
3%
Scott Bessent
$2,955 Vol.
3%
Kelly Loeffler
$947 Vol.
2%
Lee Zeldin
$762 Vol.
2%
John Ratcliffe
$676 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$677 Vol.
2%
Brooke Rollins
$797 Vol.
2%
Sean Duffy
$806 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$477 Vol.
1%
J.D. Vance
$717 Vol.
1%
Mike Waltz
$886 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$780 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$1,069 Vol.
1%
Russell T. Vought
$676 Vol.
1%
Howard Lutnick
$1,006 Vol.
1%
Chris Wright
$858 Vol.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$638 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.**Trader consensus assigns the highest probability (54.4%) to no further cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting a period of relative stability after multiple 2026 exits.** Earlier in the year, President Trump removed Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi, while Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard departed amid performance concerns, investigations, or personal circumstances. White House staff turnover, including Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt’s planned August exit, has also been notable.
Among remaining officials, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and others such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum currently face limited public pressure for immediate change. With midterm elections approaching in November 2026, the market pricing suggests traders anticipate continuity in Senate-confirmed cabinet roles through year-end absent new catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$53,391End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.**Trader consensus assigns the highest probability (54.4%) to no further cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting a period of relative stability after multiple 2026 exits.** Earlier in the year, President Trump removed Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi, while Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard departed amid performance concerns, investigations, or personal circumstances. White House staff turnover, including Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt’s planned August exit, has also been notable.
Among remaining officials, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and others such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum currently face limited public pressure for immediate change. With midterm elections approaching in November 2026, the market pricing suggests traders anticipate continuity in Senate-confirmed cabinet roles through year-end absent new catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$53,391End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus assigns the highest probability (54.4%) to no further cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting a period of relative stability after multiple 2026 exits.** Earlier in the year, President Trump removed Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi, while Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard departed amid performance concerns, investigations, or personal circumstances. White House staff turnover, including Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt’s planned August exit, has also been notable. Among remaining officials, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and others such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum currently face limited public pressure for immediate change. With midterm elections approaching in November 2026, the market pricing suggests traders anticipate continuity in Senate-confirmed cabinet roles through year-end absent new catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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