Steven Horsford holds a strong position in Nevada's 4th Congressional District as the Democratic incumbent facing Republican nominee Cody Whipple in the November general election. The district's consistent Democratic lean, reinforced by recent presidential results and independent ratings labeling the race "Likely Democratic," underpins trader consensus around an 89.5% implied probability for Horsford. Whipple secured the Republican nomination in the June primary with roughly 62% of the vote, but faces structural challenges including a significant fundraising gap and the district's urban-rural mix favoring the incumbent. Recent candidate statements on issues such as taxes, border security, and election procedures have clarified contrasts without shifting broader assessments of the race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNV-04 House Election Winner
NV-04 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Steven Horsford (D)
90%
Cody Whipple (R)
10%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Steven Horsford (D)
$2,717 Vol.
90%
Cody Whipple (R)
$4,604 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steven Horsford holds a strong position in Nevada's 4th Congressional District as the Democratic incumbent facing Republican nominee Cody Whipple in the November general election. The district's consistent Democratic lean, reinforced by recent presidential results and independent ratings labeling the race "Likely Democratic," underpins trader consensus around an 89.5% implied probability for Horsford. Whipple secured the Republican nomination in the June primary with roughly 62% of the vote, but faces structural challenges including a significant fundraising gap and the district's urban-rural mix favoring the incumbent. Recent candidate statements on issues such as taxes, border security, and election procedures have clarified contrasts without shifting broader assessments of the race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Volume
$7,321End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steven Horsford holds a strong position in Nevada's 4th Congressional District as the Democratic incumbent facing Republican nominee Cody Whipple in the November general election. The district's consistent Democratic lean, reinforced by recent presidential results and independent ratings labeling the race "Likely Democratic," underpins trader consensus around an 89.5% implied probability for Horsford. Whipple secured the Republican nomination in the June primary with roughly 62% of the vote, but faces structural challenges including a significant fundraising gap and the district's urban-rural mix favoring the incumbent. Recent candidate statements on issues such as taxes, border security, and election procedures have clarified contrasts without shifting broader assessments of the race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$7,321End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Steven Horsford holds a strong position in Nevada's 4th Congressional District as the Democratic incumbent facing Republican nominee Cody Whipple in the November general election. The district's consistent Democratic lean, reinforced by recent presidential results and independent ratings labeling the race "Likely Democratic," underpins trader consensus around an 89.5% implied probability for Horsford. Whipple secured the Republican nomination in the June primary with roughly 62% of the vote, but faces structural challenges including a significant fundraising gap and the district's urban-rural mix favoring the incumbent. Recent candidate statements on issues such as taxes, border security, and election procedures have clarified contrasts without shifting broader assessments of the race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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