Recent polling averages place National and Labour near 30 percent each, with the Greens, New Zealand First, and ACT clustered between 8 and 14 percent, creating a tight contest for third place under New Zealand’s MMP system ahead of the November 7 election. The latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia survey showed the Greens surging 3.8 points to 13.9 percent while ACT rose 3.2 points to 10.5 percent, offsetting National’s drop below 30 percent; New Zealand First eased slightly to 8.4 percent. These shifts reflect voter movement toward smaller parties as the two largest parties register their weakest combined support in decades. Trader consensus reflects New Zealand First’s steadier base versus the Greens’ recent momentum and ACT’s gains, with minimal implied probability for the remaining parties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNew Zealand Election: 3rd Place
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place
New Zealand First Party 55%
Green Party 41%
ACT New Zealand 3.9%
National Party 3.5%
$15,188 Vol.
$15,188 Vol.
Nov 6, 2026
New Zealand First Party
55%
Green Party
41%
ACT New Zealand
4%
National Party
3%
Te Pāti Māori
<1%
Labour Party
<1%
New Zealand First Party 55%
Green Party 41%
ACT New Zealand 3.9%
National Party 3.5%
$15,188 Vol.
$15,188 Vol.
Nov 6, 2026
New Zealand First Party
$5,447 Vol.
55%
Green Party
$6,195 Vol.
41%
ACT New Zealand
$862 Vol.
4%
National Party
$564 Vol.
3%
Te Pāti Māori
$915 Vol.
<1%
Labour Party
$1,206 Vol.
<1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling averages place National and Labour near 30 percent each, with the Greens, New Zealand First, and ACT clustered between 8 and 14 percent, creating a tight contest for third place under New Zealand’s MMP system ahead of the November 7 election. The latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia survey showed the Greens surging 3.8 points to 13.9 percent while ACT rose 3.2 points to 10.5 percent, offsetting National’s drop below 30 percent; New Zealand First eased slightly to 8.4 percent. These shifts reflect voter movement toward smaller parties as the two largest parties register their weakest combined support in decades. Trader consensus reflects New Zealand First’s steadier base versus the Greens’ recent momentum and ACT’s gains, with minimal implied probability for the remaining parties.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$15,188End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling averages place National and Labour near 30 percent each, with the Greens, New Zealand First, and ACT clustered between 8 and 14 percent, creating a tight contest for third place under New Zealand’s MMP system ahead of the November 7 election. The latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia survey showed the Greens surging 3.8 points to 13.9 percent while ACT rose 3.2 points to 10.5 percent, offsetting National’s drop below 30 percent; New Zealand First eased slightly to 8.4 percent. These shifts reflect voter movement toward smaller parties as the two largest parties register their weakest combined support in decades. Trader consensus reflects New Zealand First’s steadier base versus the Greens’ recent momentum and ACT’s gains, with minimal implied probability for the remaining parties.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Volume
$15,188End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place National and Labour near 30 percent each, with the Greens, New Zealand First, and ACT clustered between 8 and 14 percent, creating a tight contest for third place under New Zealand’s MMP system ahead of the November 7 election. The latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia survey showed the Greens surging 3.8 points to 13.9 percent while ACT rose 3.2 points to 10.5 percent, offsetting National’s drop below 30 percent; New Zealand First eased slightly to 8.4 percent. These shifts reflect voter movement toward smaller parties as the two largest parties register their weakest combined support in decades. Trader consensus reflects New Zealand First’s steadier base versus the Greens’ recent momentum and ACT’s gains, with minimal implied probability for the remaining parties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
56%
Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
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