Recent Federal Reserve stress tests confirm the 32 largest U.S. banks maintain strong capital buffers, with aggregate common equity tier 1 ratios declining only 1.6 percentage points to 11.2% under a severe recession scenario involving 10% unemployment and sharp declines in real estate prices. This resilience, alongside elevated regulatory capital levels near multi-year highs and reduced reliance on uninsured deposits as noted in the May 2026 Financial Stability Report, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability against a major bailout before year-end 2026. Steady earnings, contained credit losses, and the absence of systemic stress support trader consensus. Realistic challenges include an unexpectedly sharp downturn exposing commercial real estate vulnerabilities or liquidity strains at a bank exceeding $50 billion in assets that triggers government intervention.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Recent Federal Reserve stress tests confirm the 32 largest U.S. banks maintain strong capital buffers, with aggregate common equity tier 1 ratios declining only 1.6 percentage points to 11.2% under a severe recession scenario involving 10% unemployment and sharp declines in real estate prices. This resilience, alongside elevated regulatory capital levels near multi-year highs and reduced reliance on uninsured deposits as noted in the May 2026 Financial Stability Report, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability against a major bailout before year-end 2026. Steady earnings, contained credit losses, and the absence of systemic stress support trader consensus. Realistic challenges include an unexpectedly sharp downturn exposing commercial real estate vulnerabilities or liquidity strains at a bank exceeding $50 billion in assets that triggers government intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$4,183End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Recent Federal Reserve stress tests confirm the 32 largest U.S. banks maintain strong capital buffers, with aggregate common equity tier 1 ratios declining only 1.6 percentage points to 11.2% under a severe recession scenario involving 10% unemployment and sharp declines in real estate prices. This resilience, alongside elevated regulatory capital levels near multi-year highs and reduced reliance on uninsured deposits as noted in the May 2026 Financial Stability Report, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability against a major bailout before year-end 2026. Steady earnings, contained credit losses, and the absence of systemic stress support trader consensus. Realistic challenges include an unexpectedly sharp downturn exposing commercial real estate vulnerabilities or liquidity strains at a bank exceeding $50 billion in assets that triggers government intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Volume
$4,183End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Federal Reserve stress tests confirm the 32 largest U.S. banks maintain strong capital buffers, with aggregate common equity tier 1 ratios declining only 1.6 percentage points to 11.2% under a severe recession scenario involving 10% unemployment and sharp declines in real estate prices. This resilience, alongside elevated regulatory capital levels near multi-year highs and reduced reliance on uninsured deposits as noted in the May 2026 Financial Stability Report, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability against a major bailout before year-end 2026. Steady earnings, contained credit losses, and the absence of systemic stress support trader consensus. Realistic challenges include an unexpectedly sharp downturn exposing commercial real estate vulnerabilities or liquidity strains at a bank exceeding $50 billion in assets that triggers government intervention.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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