Persistent unrealized losses on securities and commercial real estate exposures, stemming from elevated interest rates, continue to pressure smaller and regional U.S. banks, driving the 64.5% market-implied probability of at least one failure by December 31, 2026. The FDIC’s problem bank list has expanded to 52 institutions, while recent closures—including five in 2026—highlight ongoing vulnerabilities in asset quality and funding. Federal Reserve stress tests confirm large banks remain resilient, with capital ratios holding above requirements despite hypothetical $708 billion losses, yet analysts note mark-to-market shortfalls exceeding $2 trillion across thousands of lenders. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming economic data releases, CRE price trends, and any shifts in monetary policy that could alter net interest margins or deposit stability. Trader consensus reflects these sector-specific risks amid broader economic uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated55% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
55% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Persistent unrealized losses on securities and commercial real estate exposures, stemming from elevated interest rates, continue to pressure smaller and regional U.S. banks, driving the 64.5% market-implied probability of at least one failure by December 31, 2026. The FDIC’s problem bank list has expanded to 52 institutions, while recent closures—including five in 2026—highlight ongoing vulnerabilities in asset quality and funding. Federal Reserve stress tests confirm large banks remain resilient, with capital ratios holding above requirements despite hypothetical $708 billion losses, yet analysts note mark-to-market shortfalls exceeding $2 trillion across thousands of lenders. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming economic data releases, CRE price trends, and any shifts in monetary policy that could alter net interest margins or deposit stability. Trader consensus reflects these sector-specific risks amid broader economic uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volume
$2,281End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Persistent unrealized losses on securities and commercial real estate exposures, stemming from elevated interest rates, continue to pressure smaller and regional U.S. banks, driving the 64.5% market-implied probability of at least one failure by December 31, 2026. The FDIC’s problem bank list has expanded to 52 institutions, while recent closures—including five in 2026—highlight ongoing vulnerabilities in asset quality and funding. Federal Reserve stress tests confirm large banks remain resilient, with capital ratios holding above requirements despite hypothetical $708 billion losses, yet analysts note mark-to-market shortfalls exceeding $2 trillion across thousands of lenders. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming economic data releases, CRE price trends, and any shifts in monetary policy that could alter net interest margins or deposit stability. Trader consensus reflects these sector-specific risks amid broader economic uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volume
$2,281End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent unrealized losses on securities and commercial real estate exposures, stemming from elevated interest rates, continue to pressure smaller and regional U.S. banks, driving the 64.5% market-implied probability of at least one failure by December 31, 2026. The FDIC’s problem bank list has expanded to 52 institutions, while recent closures—including five in 2026—highlight ongoing vulnerabilities in asset quality and funding. Federal Reserve stress tests confirm large banks remain resilient, with capital ratios holding above requirements despite hypothetical $708 billion losses, yet analysts note mark-to-market shortfalls exceeding $2 trillion across thousands of lenders. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming economic data releases, CRE price trends, and any shifts in monetary policy that could alter net interest margins or deposit stability. Trader consensus reflects these sector-specific risks amid broader economic uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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