Resilient labor market data and positive economic signals underpin the 92.5% market-implied odds against a U.S. recession by year-end 2026. The unemployment rate holds near 4.1% with recent payroll gains exceeding expectations, while the Sahm Rule remains well below its 0.5 trigger at -0.07 and the 10Y-2Y yield curve sits positive at +0.41 percentage points. Q2 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate amid AI-driven investment and steady consumer spending, with professional forecasters projecting 2.1–2.3% growth through 2027 and low probabilities of contraction. Sticky inflation near 3.3% core PCE keeps the Fed on hold at 3.75%, but absent major shocks to energy prices or labor demand, these conditions support the consensus. Key swing factors include any sharp rise in jobless claims or renewed tariff pressures that could tip growth below trend.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS recession by end of 2026?
US recession by end of 2026?
8% chance
$1,742,095 Vol.
$1,742,095 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
8% chance
$1,742,095 Vol.
$1,742,095 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productResilient labor market data and positive economic signals underpin the 92.5% market-implied odds against a U.S. recession by year-end 2026. The unemployment rate holds near 4.1% with recent payroll gains exceeding expectations, while the Sahm Rule remains well below its 0.5 trigger at -0.07 and the 10Y-2Y yield curve sits positive at +0.41 percentage points. Q2 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate amid AI-driven investment and steady consumer spending, with professional forecasters projecting 2.1–2.3% growth through 2027 and low probabilities of contraction. Sticky inflation near 3.3% core PCE keeps the Fed on hold at 3.75%, but absent major shocks to energy prices or labor demand, these conditions support the consensus. Key swing factors include any sharp rise in jobless claims or renewed tariff pressures that could tip growth below trend.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Market Opened: Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,742,095End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productResilient labor market data and positive economic signals underpin the 92.5% market-implied odds against a U.S. recession by year-end 2026. The unemployment rate holds near 4.1% with recent payroll gains exceeding expectations, while the Sahm Rule remains well below its 0.5 trigger at -0.07 and the 10Y-2Y yield curve sits positive at +0.41 percentage points. Q2 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate amid AI-driven investment and steady consumer spending, with professional forecasters projecting 2.1–2.3% growth through 2027 and low probabilities of contraction. Sticky inflation near 3.3% core PCE keeps the Fed on hold at 3.75%, but absent major shocks to energy prices or labor demand, these conditions support the consensus. Key swing factors include any sharp rise in jobless claims or renewed tariff pressures that could tip growth below trend.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Volume
$1,742,095End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resilient labor market data and positive economic signals underpin the 92.5% market-implied odds against a U.S. recession by year-end 2026. The unemployment rate holds near 4.1% with recent payroll gains exceeding expectations, while the Sahm Rule remains well below its 0.5 trigger at -0.07 and the 10Y-2Y yield curve sits positive at +0.41 percentage points. Q2 GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate amid AI-driven investment and steady consumer spending, with professional forecasters projecting 2.1–2.3% growth through 2027 and low probabilities of contraction. Sticky inflation near 3.3% core PCE keeps the Fed on hold at 3.75%, but absent major shocks to energy prices or labor demand, these conditions support the consensus. Key swing factors include any sharp rise in jobless claims or renewed tariff pressures that could tip growth below trend.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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