Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a strong position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race, reflected in trader consensus around 80% odds, due to the state's consistent Republican lean—evident in recent presidential results—and his easy primary victory. Democrat Adam Hamilton, a prominent United Methodist pastor, secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary but faces structural challenges in a state where Democrats have not won a Senate seat since 1932. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Republican following Hamilton's primary win and fundraising edge, with recent polling averages showing Marshall ahead by several points. No major developments have altered the outlook since the primaries, though Hamilton's profile offers limited crossover potential in a midterm environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$46,467 Vol.
$46,467 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Roger Marshall (R)
81%
Adam Hamilton (D)
19%
$46,467 Vol.
$46,467 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Roger Marshall (R)
$30,174 Vol.
81%
Adam Hamilton (D)
$16,293 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a strong position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race, reflected in trader consensus around 80% odds, due to the state's consistent Republican lean—evident in recent presidential results—and his easy primary victory. Democrat Adam Hamilton, a prominent United Methodist pastor, secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary but faces structural challenges in a state where Democrats have not won a Senate seat since 1932. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Republican following Hamilton's primary win and fundraising edge, with recent polling averages showing Marshall ahead by several points. No major developments have altered the outlook since the primaries, though Hamilton's profile offers limited crossover potential in a midterm environment.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$46,467End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a strong position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race, reflected in trader consensus around 80% odds, due to the state's consistent Republican lean—evident in recent presidential results—and his easy primary victory. Democrat Adam Hamilton, a prominent United Methodist pastor, secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary but faces structural challenges in a state where Democrats have not won a Senate seat since 1932. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Republican following Hamilton's primary win and fundraising edge, with recent polling averages showing Marshall ahead by several points. No major developments have altered the outlook since the primaries, though Hamilton's profile offers limited crossover potential in a midterm environment.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$46,467End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a strong position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race, reflected in trader consensus around 80% odds, due to the state's consistent Republican lean—evident in recent presidential results—and his easy primary victory. Democrat Adam Hamilton, a prominent United Methodist pastor, secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary but faces structural challenges in a state where Democrats have not won a Senate seat since 1932. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Republican following Hamilton's primary win and fundraising edge, with recent polling averages showing Marshall ahead by several points. No major developments have altered the outlook since the primaries, though Hamilton's profile offers limited crossover potential in a midterm environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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