Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Iowa Senate Election: Turnout
Politics·Turnout

Iowa Senate Election: Turnout

icon for Iowa Senate Election: Turnout
Politics·Turnout

Iowa Senate Election: Turnout

1.4M-1.45M 34%

1.35M-1.4M 29%

1.45M-1.5M 23.1%

1.3M-1.35M 10%

Polymarket
NEW

1.4M-1.45M 34%

1.35M-1.4M 29%

1.45M-1.5M 23.1%

1.3M-1.35M 10%

Polymarket
NEW

<1.2M

$312 Vol.

4%

1.2M-1.25M

$815 Vol.

3%

1.25M-1.3M

$292 Vol.

6%

1.3M-1.35M

$753 Vol.

10%

1.35M-1.4M

$472 Vol.

29%

1.4M-1.45M

$825 Vol.

34%

1.45M-1.5M

$411 Vol.

23%

1.5M-1.55M

$185 Vol.

3%

1.55M-1.6M

$428 Vol.

<1%

1.6M+

$180 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The competitive open-seat contest between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, alongside an open gubernatorial race, stands as the primary driver of trader expectations for Iowa Senate turnout near 1.4 million ballots. Recent polling averages show a toss-up or narrow Republican edge, with late August and early September surveys reflecting shifts of just a few points amid strong small-donor mobilization and campaign spending. Higher-than-usual primary participation in June, fueled by these high-profile nominations, signals elevated interest that could lift midterm participation above historical baselines in a state with traditionally strong voter engagement. The clustered probabilities around the 1.35M–1.5M range capture uncertainty over how much the absence of an incumbent and national midterm dynamics will expand the electorate before November 3.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,672
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The competitive open-seat contest between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, alongside an open gubernatorial race, stands as the primary driver of trader expectations for Iowa Senate turnout near 1.4 million ballots. Recent polling averages show a toss-up or narrow Republican edge, with late August and early September surveys reflecting shifts of just a few points amid strong small-donor mobilization and campaign spending. Higher-than-usual primary participation in June, fueled by these high-profile nominations, signals elevated interest that could lift midterm participation above historical baselines in a state with traditionally strong voter engagement. The clustered probabilities around the 1.35M–1.5M range capture uncertainty over how much the absence of an incumbent and national midterm dynamics will expand the electorate before November 3.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,672
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Minnesota be between 2,150,000 and 2,300,000?

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Minnesota be between 2,150,000 and 2,300,000?

46%
icon for Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho be between 600,000 and 640,000?

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho be between 600,000 and 640,000?

48%
icon for Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alabama be between 1,600,000 and 1,700,000?

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alabama be between 1,600,000 and 1,700,000?

32%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Iowa Senate Election: Turnout" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.4M-1.45M" at 34%, followed by "1.35M-1.4M" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Iowa Senate Election: Turnout" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Iowa Senate Election: Turnout," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iowa Senate Election: Turnout" is "1.4M-1.45M" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1.35M-1.4M" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iowa Senate Election: Turnout" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.