The lack of competitiveness in the Maryland gubernatorial contest, with incumbent Democrat Wes Moore holding a wide lead over Republican Dan Cox in available polling, anchors trader expectations for moderate turnout near 2022 levels. Low Democratic and Republican primary participation earlier this year, driven by a closed primary system and over one million unaffiliated voters excluded from key races, signals limited baseline engagement. Roughly 590,000 mail-in ballot requests as of late September provide some counterbalancing participation signal ahead of the November 3 election. Historical patterns for off-year statewide contests in the state, absent major national catalysts or tight polling margins that typically boost mobilization, support the current clustering of probabilities in the 1.85–2.15 million range.