The closely matched probabilities between the 600K-640K and 640K-680K turnout ranges in Idaho’s U.S. Senate election reflect trader uncertainty over participation levels in a low-salience midterm contest. Incumbent Republican Jim Risch holds a safe seat against independent challenger Todd Achilles following the Democratic nominee’s withdrawal after the May primary, where turnout reached about 30% of registered voters. Historical midterm patterns, limited statewide competition, and modest campaign spending by both sides have kept expectations moderate, with early voting and absentee options already underway. Shifts could emerge from late mobilization efforts, weather on November 3, or unexpected national political developments that alter voter enthusiasm in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated600K-640K 41%
640K-680K 34%
680K-720K 13%
720K+ 9.7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<480K
4%
480K-520K
4%
520K-560K
2%
560K-600K
3%
600K-640K
41%
640K-680K
34%
680K-720K
13%
720K+
10%
600K-640K 41%
640K-680K 34%
680K-720K 13%
720K+ 9.7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<480K
$199 Vol.
4%
480K-520K
$179 Vol.
4%
520K-560K
$308 Vol.
2%
560K-600K
$87 Vol.
3%
600K-640K
$1,809 Vol.
41%
640K-680K
$1,063 Vol.
34%
680K-720K
$187 Vol.
13%
720K+
$137 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely matched probabilities between the 600K-640K and 640K-680K turnout ranges in Idaho’s U.S. Senate election reflect trader uncertainty over participation levels in a low-salience midterm contest. Incumbent Republican Jim Risch holds a safe seat against independent challenger Todd Achilles following the Democratic nominee’s withdrawal after the May primary, where turnout reached about 30% of registered voters. Historical midterm patterns, limited statewide competition, and modest campaign spending by both sides have kept expectations moderate, with early voting and absentee options already underway. Shifts could emerge from late mobilization efforts, weather on November 3, or unexpected national political developments that alter voter enthusiasm in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 10:20 AM ET
Volume
$3,970End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:20 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely matched probabilities between the 600K-640K and 640K-680K turnout ranges in Idaho’s U.S. Senate election reflect trader uncertainty over participation levels in a low-salience midterm contest. Incumbent Republican Jim Risch holds a safe seat against independent challenger Todd Achilles following the Democratic nominee’s withdrawal after the May primary, where turnout reached about 30% of registered voters. Historical midterm patterns, limited statewide competition, and modest campaign spending by both sides have kept expectations moderate, with early voting and absentee options already underway. Shifts could emerge from late mobilization efforts, weather on November 3, or unexpected national political developments that alter voter enthusiasm in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,970End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:20 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities between the 600K-640K and 640K-680K turnout ranges in Idaho’s U.S. Senate election reflect trader uncertainty over participation levels in a low-salience midterm contest. Incumbent Republican Jim Risch holds a safe seat against independent challenger Todd Achilles following the Democratic nominee’s withdrawal after the May primary, where turnout reached about 30% of registered voters. Historical midterm patterns, limited statewide competition, and modest campaign spending by both sides have kept expectations moderate, with early voting and absentee options already underway. Shifts could emerge from late mobilization efforts, weather on November 3, or unexpected national political developments that alter voter enthusiasm in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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