The competitive nature of Wisconsin's open 2026 gubernatorial contest between Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany, rated a toss-up with recent polls showing margins under four points, anchors trader expectations for turnout in the 2.6M–3M range. Elevated Democratic primary participation in August—nearly 790,000 ballots, the highest midterm total in over two decades—signals stronger base mobilization that could carry into November, while the state's history of high engagement in tight races supports probabilities clustering around historical midterm levels near 2.67 million from 2022. Ongoing absentee ballot distribution amid legal challenges and independent voter outreach add modest uncertainty without shifting the consensus ahead of the November 3 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2.6M-2.8M 48%
2.8M-3M 29%
2.4M-2.6M 17%
3M-3.2M 5.3%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<2.2M
2%
2.2M-2.4M
2%
2.4M-2.6M
17%
2.6M-2.8M
48%
2.8M-3M
29%
3M-3.2M
5%
3.2M+
4%
2.6M-2.8M 48%
2.8M-3M 29%
2.4M-2.6M 17%
3M-3.2M 5.3%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<2.2M
$264 Vol.
2%
2.2M-2.4M
$1,245 Vol.
2%
2.4M-2.6M
$310 Vol.
17%
2.6M-2.8M
$1,271 Vol.
48%
2.8M-3M
$1,624 Vol.
29%
3M-3.2M
$313 Vol.
5%
3.2M+
$1,504 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The competitive nature of Wisconsin's open 2026 gubernatorial contest between Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany, rated a toss-up with recent polls showing margins under four points, anchors trader expectations for turnout in the 2.6M–3M range. Elevated Democratic primary participation in August—nearly 790,000 ballots, the highest midterm total in over two decades—signals stronger base mobilization that could carry into November, while the state's history of high engagement in tight races supports probabilities clustering around historical midterm levels near 2.67 million from 2022. Ongoing absentee ballot distribution amid legal challenges and independent voter outreach add modest uncertainty without shifting the consensus ahead of the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$6,531End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The competitive nature of Wisconsin's open 2026 gubernatorial contest between Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany, rated a toss-up with recent polls showing margins under four points, anchors trader expectations for turnout in the 2.6M–3M range. Elevated Democratic primary participation in August—nearly 790,000 ballots, the highest midterm total in over two decades—signals stronger base mobilization that could carry into November, while the state's history of high engagement in tight races supports probabilities clustering around historical midterm levels near 2.67 million from 2022. Ongoing absentee ballot distribution amid legal challenges and independent voter outreach add modest uncertainty without shifting the consensus ahead of the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,531End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The competitive nature of Wisconsin's open 2026 gubernatorial contest between Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany, rated a toss-up with recent polls showing margins under four points, anchors trader expectations for turnout in the 2.6M–3M range. Elevated Democratic primary participation in August—nearly 790,000 ballots, the highest midterm total in over two decades—signals stronger base mobilization that could carry into November, while the state's history of high engagement in tight races supports probabilities clustering around historical midterm levels near 2.67 million from 2022. Ongoing absentee ballot distribution amid legal challenges and independent voter outreach add modest uncertainty without shifting the consensus ahead of the November 3 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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