**Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability that Flávio Bolsonaro will not face charges or arrest by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any imminent criminal action against the Liberal Party presidential candidate.** Ongoing federal police investigations into alleged funding from banker Daniel Vorcaro for a film about his father remain at the inquiry stage without new indictments or warrants targeting Flávio directly. Recent electoral proceedings, including the Superior Electoral Court’s acceptance of an abuse-of-economic-power complaint tied to a campaign event, focus on potential ineligibility or cassation rather than criminal charges. Internal Supreme Court disputes over Federal Police leadership have not produced accelerated prosecution timelines. With the presidential election scheduled for October and Flávio actively campaigning, procedural and political constraints make rapid criminal resolution before month-end unlikely under current conditions.