Ongoing federal and state investigations into sexual misconduct allegations against former Rep. Eric Swalwell, including an FBI search warrant execution in mid-August that seized electronic devices at San Francisco airport and his Washington home, have not produced charges or an arrest. Separate probes by the Manhattan district attorney and Los Angeles authorities remain active following his April resignation from Congress amid the claims. No public indication of imminent arrest has emerged in the weeks since the device seizures, and legal processes for such cases typically involve extended review before any custodial action. Traders assign a 93% probability to no arrest by September 30, reflecting the absence of confirmed developments that would accelerate proceedings within the narrow remaining window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
7% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing federal and state investigations into sexual misconduct allegations against former Rep. Eric Swalwell, including an FBI search warrant execution in mid-August that seized electronic devices at San Francisco airport and his Washington home, have not produced charges or an arrest. Separate probes by the Manhattan district attorney and Los Angeles authorities remain active following his April resignation from Congress amid the claims. No public indication of imminent arrest has emerged in the weeks since the device seizures, and legal processes for such cases typically involve extended review before any custodial action. Traders assign a 93% probability to no arrest by September 30, reflecting the absence of confirmed developments that would accelerate proceedings within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
Volume
$22End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing federal and state investigations into sexual misconduct allegations against former Rep. Eric Swalwell, including an FBI search warrant execution in mid-August that seized electronic devices at San Francisco airport and his Washington home, have not produced charges or an arrest. Separate probes by the Manhattan district attorney and Los Angeles authorities remain active following his April resignation from Congress amid the claims. No public indication of imminent arrest has emerged in the weeks since the device seizures, and legal processes for such cases typically involve extended review before any custodial action. Traders assign a 93% probability to no arrest by September 30, reflecting the absence of confirmed developments that would accelerate proceedings within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$22End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing federal and state investigations into sexual misconduct allegations against former Rep. Eric Swalwell, including an FBI search warrant execution in mid-August that seized electronic devices at San Francisco airport and his Washington home, have not produced charges or an arrest. Separate probes by the Manhattan district attorney and Los Angeles authorities remain active following his April resignation from Congress amid the claims. No public indication of imminent arrest has emerged in the weeks since the device seizures, and legal processes for such cases typically involve extended review before any custodial action. Traders assign a 93% probability to no arrest by September 30, reflecting the absence of confirmed developments that would accelerate proceedings within the narrow remaining window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions