Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Economy·Fed

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

icon for Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Economy·Fed

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Sep 16

Oct 28

Dec 9

Sep 16

Oct 28

Dec 9

Pause–Pause–Pause 29%

Hike–Pause–Pause 15%

Hike–Hike–Pause 13%

Pause–Hike–Hike 10.9%

Polymarket

$14,926 Vol.

Pause–Pause–Pause 29%

Hike–Pause–Pause 15%

Hike–Hike–Pause 13%

Pause–Hike–Hike 10.9%

Polymarket

$14,926 Vol.

Hike–Pause–Hike

$329 Vol.

11%

Hike–Pause–Pause

$538 Vol.

15%

Hike–Hike–Hike

$231 Vol.

6%

Hike–Hike–Pause

$474 Vol.

13%

Pause–Pause–Hike

$618 Vol.

7%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$11,737 Vol.

29%

Pause–Hike–Hike

$364 Vol.

11%

Pause–Hike–Pause

$366 Vol.

7%

Other

$269 Vol.

7%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. labor market strength, including 162,000 August payroll gains and a 4.1% unemployment rate, combined with elevated inflation—PCE at 3.6–3.7% year-over-year and core measures above target—has shifted trader sentiment toward a higher probability of rate hikes at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect this tension, with Pause–Pause–Pause leading at 29% while various hike-inclusive paths collectively command over 60% probability. Persistent supply-side pressures, resilient growth, and evolving Fed communications under new leadership underpin the wide dispersion across sequences for the September, October, and December decisions. The upcoming September dot plot and incoming data on inflation and employment remain key near-term catalysts.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$14,926
End Date
Dec 9, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. labor market strength, including 162,000 August payroll gains and a 4.1% unemployment rate, combined with elevated inflation—PCE at 3.6–3.7% year-over-year and core measures above target—has shifted trader sentiment toward a higher probability of rate hikes at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect this tension, with Pause–Pause–Pause leading at 29% while various hike-inclusive paths collectively command over 60% probability. Persistent supply-side pressures, resilient growth, and evolving Fed communications under new leadership underpin the wide dispersion across sequences for the September, October, and December decisions. The upcoming September dot plot and incoming data on inflation and employment remain key near-term catalysts.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$14,926
End Date
Dec 9, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

63%
icon for Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

54%
icon for Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

54%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Pause–Pause–Pause" at 29%, followed by "Hike–Pause–Pause" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 29¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 29% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)" has generated $14.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)" is "Pause–Pause–Pause" at 29%, meaning the market assigns a 29% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Hike–Pause–Pause" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.