Persistent inflation remains the dominant driver behind the 74.5% market-implied probability for a hike-pause-hike sequence across the September, October, and December FOMC meetings. September CPI rose to 3.7% year-over-year, with core at 2.6%, exceeding the 2% target and prompting the unanimous 25-basis-point rate increase to the 3.75%-4.00% range on September 16. Trader consensus now prices a hold at the October 27-28 meeting amid the pre-election quiet period, followed by another hike in December when updated economic projections will be released. Strong labor market conditions and resilient growth further support this path, though incoming data releases could shift the December outlook.