Recent Federal Reserve actions and projections underpin the 80.5% market-implied probability of another rate hike in 2026. On September 16, the FOMC raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4.00% range, citing persistently elevated inflation near 3.7% PCE and resilient economic activity amid geopolitical pressures. The updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 policymakers expecting at least one additional quarter-point increase by year-end, with the median path holding rates near 4% into 2027. Trader consensus, reflected in futures pricing, has shifted sharply higher following the hawkish signal, though uncertainty around inflation trajectory and labor market data could still influence the timing of further moves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated81% chance
NEW
$19,020 Vol.
NEW
$19,020 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
81% chance
NEW
$19,020 Vol.
NEW
$19,020 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Federal Reserve actions and projections underpin the 80.5% market-implied probability of another rate hike in 2026. On September 16, the FOMC raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4.00% range, citing persistently elevated inflation near 3.7% PCE and resilient economic activity amid geopolitical pressures. The updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 policymakers expecting at least one additional quarter-point increase by year-end, with the median path holding rates near 4% into 2027. Trader consensus, reflected in futures pricing, has shifted sharply higher following the hawkish signal, though uncertainty around inflation trajectory and labor market data could still influence the timing of further moves.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$19,020End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Federal Reserve actions and projections underpin the 80.5% market-implied probability of another rate hike in 2026. On September 16, the FOMC raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4.00% range, citing persistently elevated inflation near 3.7% PCE and resilient economic activity amid geopolitical pressures. The updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 policymakers expecting at least one additional quarter-point increase by year-end, with the median path holding rates near 4% into 2027. Trader consensus, reflected in futures pricing, has shifted sharply higher following the hawkish signal, though uncertainty around inflation trajectory and labor market data could still influence the timing of further moves.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$20,530End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Federal Reserve actions and projections underpin the 80.5% market-implied probability of another rate hike in 2026. On September 16, the FOMC raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4.00% range, citing persistently elevated inflation near 3.7% PCE and resilient economic activity amid geopolitical pressures. The updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 policymakers expecting at least one additional quarter-point increase by year-end, with the median path holding rates near 4% into 2027. Trader consensus, reflected in futures pricing, has shifted sharply higher following the hawkish signal, though uncertainty around inflation trajectory and labor market data could still influence the timing of further moves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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