**Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, paired with Supreme Court rulings affirming central bank independence, anchors the 93.8% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt to remove him by year-end.** Recent decisions blocked efforts to dismiss other governors and established a high bar for such actions, limiting presidential leverage despite ongoing policy friction. Warsh has signaled a data-driven focus on returning inflation to the 2% target, including openness to rate adjustments at the September FOMC meeting even as administration officials publicly advocate cuts. This stance creates tension but has not yet prompted direct removal threats, with Trump continuing to describe Warsh positively. A sustained clash over higher-for-longer policy—especially near the midterms—could test these protections, though formal barriers and Warsh's institutional positioning make an outright attempt unlikely absent a sharp deterioration in relations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
$13,948 Vol.
$13,948 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$13,948 Vol.
$13,948 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, paired with Supreme Court rulings affirming central bank independence, anchors the 93.8% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt to remove him by year-end.** Recent decisions blocked efforts to dismiss other governors and established a high bar for such actions, limiting presidential leverage despite ongoing policy friction. Warsh has signaled a data-driven focus on returning inflation to the 2% target, including openness to rate adjustments at the September FOMC meeting even as administration officials publicly advocate cuts. This stance creates tension but has not yet prompted direct removal threats, with Trump continuing to describe Warsh positively. A sustained clash over higher-for-longer policy—especially near the midterms—could test these protections, though formal barriers and Warsh's institutional positioning make an outright attempt unlikely absent a sharp deterioration in relations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$13,948End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, paired with Supreme Court rulings affirming central bank independence, anchors the 93.8% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt to remove him by year-end.** Recent decisions blocked efforts to dismiss other governors and established a high bar for such actions, limiting presidential leverage despite ongoing policy friction. Warsh has signaled a data-driven focus on returning inflation to the 2% target, including openness to rate adjustments at the September FOMC meeting even as administration officials publicly advocate cuts. This stance creates tension but has not yet prompted direct removal threats, with Trump continuing to describe Warsh positively. A sustained clash over higher-for-longer policy—especially near the midterms—could test these protections, though formal barriers and Warsh's institutional positioning make an outright attempt unlikely absent a sharp deterioration in relations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$13,948End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, paired with Supreme Court rulings affirming central bank independence, anchors the 93.8% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt to remove him by year-end.** Recent decisions blocked efforts to dismiss other governors and established a high bar for such actions, limiting presidential leverage despite ongoing policy friction. Warsh has signaled a data-driven focus on returning inflation to the 2% target, including openness to rate adjustments at the September FOMC meeting even as administration officials publicly advocate cuts. This stance creates tension but has not yet prompted direct removal threats, with Trump continuing to describe Warsh positively. A sustained clash over higher-for-longer policy—especially near the midterms—could test these protections, though formal barriers and Warsh's institutional positioning make an outright attempt unlikely absent a sharp deterioration in relations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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