Vermont's 2026 gubernatorial election features incumbent Republican Phil Scott facing Democrat Amanda Janoo in a low-competition race, with traders assigning the highest probability (41.5%) to 275,000-300,000 total ballots cast. Historical midterm participation has ranged from roughly 278,000 in 2018 to 292,000 in 2022, well below the 370,000-plus recorded in recent presidential years. With registered voters near 500,000 and active eligible voters around 460,000, the August 11 primaries produced only modest turnout concentrated in the Democratic contest, offering limited signal for November mobilization. The absence of a tight contest or major late catalysts has kept expectations aligned with typical off-year patterns, while factors such as campaign spending, get-out-the-vote efforts, and any national developments could still influence final participation within the resolution window.