Aaron Flint leads the Montana 1st Congressional District race with a 61.5% implied probability on Polymarket, ahead of Democrat Sam Forstag at 37.5%. The open seat, vacated by retiring Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, sits in a district Trump carried by 12 points in 2024 and that nonpartisan raters classify as Likely Republican. Flint secured the GOP nomination in the June primary with early backing from President Trump and former Rep. Zinke, defeating Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen. Forstag narrowly won the Democratic primary over Ryan Busse with support from Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and labor unions. A late-June Democratic internal poll showed the candidates tied at 44%, while both nominees have raised over $1.3 million. The November 3 general election outcome remains sensitive to turnout among western Montana voters and any late shifts in national or state conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$11,260 交易量
$11,260 交易量
2026-11-03
亚伦·弗林特（共和党）
62%
萨姆·福斯塔格（民主党）
38%
$11,260 交易量
$11,260 交易量
2026-11-03
亚伦·弗林特（共和党）
$6,189 交易量
62%
萨姆·福斯塔格（民主党）
$5,071 交易量
38%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aaron Flint leads the Montana 1st Congressional District race with a 61.5% implied probability on Polymarket, ahead of Democrat Sam Forstag at 37.5%. The open seat, vacated by retiring Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, sits in a district Trump carried by 12 points in 2024 and that nonpartisan raters classify as Likely Republican. Flint secured the GOP nomination in the June primary with early backing from President Trump and former Rep. Zinke, defeating Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen. Forstag narrowly won the Democratic primary over Ryan Busse with support from Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and labor unions. A late-June Democratic internal poll showed the candidates tied at 44%, while both nominees have raised over $1.3 million. The November 3 general election outcome remains sensitive to turnout among western Montana voters and any late shifts in national or state conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
交易量
$11,260结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aaron Flint leads the Montana 1st Congressional District race with a 61.5% implied probability on Polymarket, ahead of Democrat Sam Forstag at 37.5%. The open seat, vacated by retiring Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, sits in a district Trump carried by 12 points in 2024 and that nonpartisan raters classify as Likely Republican. Flint secured the GOP nomination in the June primary with early backing from President Trump and former Rep. Zinke, defeating Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen. Forstag narrowly won the Democratic primary over Ryan Busse with support from Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and labor unions. A late-June Democratic internal poll showed the candidates tied at 44%, while both nominees have raised over $1.3 million. The November 3 general election outcome remains sensitive to turnout among western Montana voters and any late shifts in national or state conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,260结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETAaron Flint leads the Montana 1st Congressional District race with a 61.5% implied probability on Polymarket, ahead of Democrat Sam Forstag at 37.5%. The open seat, vacated by retiring Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, sits in a district Trump carried by 12 points in 2024 and that nonpartisan raters classify as Likely Republican. Flint secured the GOP nomination in the June primary with early backing from President Trump and former Rep. Zinke, defeating Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen. Forstag narrowly won the Democratic primary over Ryan Busse with support from Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and labor unions. A late-June Democratic internal poll showed the candidates tied at 44%, while both nominees have raised over $1.3 million. The November 3 general election outcome remains sensitive to turnout among western Montana voters and any late shifts in national or state conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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