Troy Downing's position as the Republican incumbent in Montana's 2nd Congressional District drives the strong market consensus, reflecting the seat's consistent R+15 partisan lean, his 2024 general election margin exceeding 30 points, and an unopposed primary path. Brian Miller secured the Democratic nomination in June but faces a steep fundraising gap, with Downing holding over $2 million in receipts compared to Miller's under $20,000 through mid-2026. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican. Trader pricing at these levels aligns with the district's eastern Montana voter base and historical turnout patterns. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected national midterm shift could narrow the outcome, though no such factors have emerged in recent weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$45,343 交易量
$45,343 交易量
2026-11-02
特洛伊·唐宁（共和党）
95%
布莱恩·米勒（民主党）
5%
$45,343 交易量
$45,343 交易量
2026-11-02
特洛伊·唐宁（共和党）
$26,444 交易量
95%
布莱恩·米勒（民主党）
$18,899 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Troy Downing's position as the Republican incumbent in Montana's 2nd Congressional District drives the strong market consensus, reflecting the seat's consistent R+15 partisan lean, his 2024 general election margin exceeding 30 points, and an unopposed primary path. Brian Miller secured the Democratic nomination in June but faces a steep fundraising gap, with Downing holding over $2 million in receipts compared to Miller's under $20,000 through mid-2026. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican. Trader pricing at these levels aligns with the district's eastern Montana voter base and historical turnout patterns. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected national midterm shift could narrow the outcome, though no such factors have emerged in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$45,343结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Troy Downing's position as the Republican incumbent in Montana's 2nd Congressional District drives the strong market consensus, reflecting the seat's consistent R+15 partisan lean, his 2024 general election margin exceeding 30 points, and an unopposed primary path. Brian Miller secured the Democratic nomination in June but faces a steep fundraising gap, with Downing holding over $2 million in receipts compared to Miller's under $20,000 through mid-2026. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican. Trader pricing at these levels aligns with the district's eastern Montana voter base and historical turnout patterns. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected national midterm shift could narrow the outcome, though no such factors have emerged in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$45,343结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETTroy Downing's position as the Republican incumbent in Montana's 2nd Congressional District drives the strong market consensus, reflecting the seat's consistent R+15 partisan lean, his 2024 general election margin exceeding 30 points, and an unopposed primary path. Brian Miller secured the Democratic nomination in June but faces a steep fundraising gap, with Downing holding over $2 million in receipts compared to Miller's under $20,000 through mid-2026. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican. Trader pricing at these levels aligns with the district's eastern Montana voter base and historical turnout patterns. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected national midterm shift could narrow the outcome, though no such factors have emerged in recent weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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