Jace Yarbrough holds an 87.5% implied probability in the TX-32 general election market, reflecting the district’s shift to a Republican majority following 2025 redistricting that added rural East Texas counties and reduced its urban Democratic core. Yarbrough secured the GOP nomination after leading the March primary with Trump’s endorsement and consolidating support when Ryan Binkley withdrew before the scheduled runoff. Dan Barrios, who won the Democratic primary with 60% of the vote, faces structural headwinds in the newly configured seat rated Solid Republican by multiple forecasters. Yarbrough’s substantial fundraising edge and unified party backing have kept the race stable since the primaries concluded, with no major developments reported in recent weeks that would alter trader assessments ahead of the November 3 contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$34,116 交易量
$34,116 交易量
2026-11-03
贾斯·亚布勒（共和党）
88%
丹·巴里奥斯（民主党）
11%
$34,116 交易量
$34,116 交易量
2026-11-03
贾斯·亚布勒（共和党）
$29,808 交易量
88%
丹·巴里奥斯（民主党）
$4,308 交易量
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jace Yarbrough holds an 87.5% implied probability in the TX-32 general election market, reflecting the district’s shift to a Republican majority following 2025 redistricting that added rural East Texas counties and reduced its urban Democratic core. Yarbrough secured the GOP nomination after leading the March primary with Trump’s endorsement and consolidating support when Ryan Binkley withdrew before the scheduled runoff. Dan Barrios, who won the Democratic primary with 60% of the vote, faces structural headwinds in the newly configured seat rated Solid Republican by multiple forecasters. Yarbrough’s substantial fundraising edge and unified party backing have kept the race stable since the primaries concluded, with no major developments reported in recent weeks that would alter trader assessments ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
交易量
$34,116结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jace Yarbrough holds an 87.5% implied probability in the TX-32 general election market, reflecting the district’s shift to a Republican majority following 2025 redistricting that added rural East Texas counties and reduced its urban Democratic core. Yarbrough secured the GOP nomination after leading the March primary with Trump’s endorsement and consolidating support when Ryan Binkley withdrew before the scheduled runoff. Dan Barrios, who won the Democratic primary with 60% of the vote, faces structural headwinds in the newly configured seat rated Solid Republican by multiple forecasters. Yarbrough’s substantial fundraising edge and unified party backing have kept the race stable since the primaries concluded, with no major developments reported in recent weeks that would alter trader assessments ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$34,116结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETJace Yarbrough holds an 87.5% implied probability in the TX-32 general election market, reflecting the district’s shift to a Republican majority following 2025 redistricting that added rural East Texas counties and reduced its urban Democratic core. Yarbrough secured the GOP nomination after leading the March primary with Trump’s endorsement and consolidating support when Ryan Binkley withdrew before the scheduled runoff. Dan Barrios, who won the Democratic primary with 60% of the vote, faces structural headwinds in the newly configured seat rated Solid Republican by multiple forecasters. Yarbrough’s substantial fundraising edge and unified party backing have kept the race stable since the primaries concluded, with no major developments reported in recent weeks that would alter trader assessments ahead of the November 3 contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题