Recent August 2026 data showed Japan’s core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) holding at 1.9% year-over-year, with the broader core measure easing to 1.7%, both remaining below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target amid energy subsidies and base effects. Trader sentiment has coalesced around the 2.0-2.4% band for the full-year 2026 average because the BOJ’s September policy statement and July Outlook project underlying inflation accelerating above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026, driven by yen depreciation, higher import and crude oil costs from Middle East tensions, AI-related semiconductor demand, and ongoing wage-price pass-through by firms. Producer prices have risen sharply, signaling spillover into consumer goods, while the central bank’s recent 25 basis point rate hike to 1.25% underscores vigilance against overshoot risks. These dynamics, combined with expectations of subsidy phase-outs, anchor market-implied odds favoring a modest 2026 average within the leading bracket.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2.0-2.4% 79%
≤1.9% 22%
2.5-2.9% <1%
4.0%及以上 <1%
$61,933 交易量
$61,933 交易量
2027-02-12
≤1.9%
22%
2.0-2.4%
79%
2.5-2.9%
1%
3.0-3.4%
<1%
3.5-3.9%
<1%
4.0%及以上
1%
2.0-2.4% 79%
≤1.9% 22%
2.5-2.9% <1%
4.0%及以上 <1%
$61,933 交易量
$61,933 交易量
2027-02-12
≤1.9%
$17,628 交易量
22%
2.0-2.4%
$26,678 交易量
79%
2.5-2.9%
$11,486 交易量
1%
3.0-3.4%
$2,584 交易量
<1%
3.5-3.9%
$1,485 交易量
<1%
4.0%及以上
$2,072 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent August 2026 data showed Japan’s core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) holding at 1.9% year-over-year, with the broader core measure easing to 1.7%, both remaining below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target amid energy subsidies and base effects. Trader sentiment has coalesced around the 2.0-2.4% band for the full-year 2026 average because the BOJ’s September policy statement and July Outlook project underlying inflation accelerating above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026, driven by yen depreciation, higher import and crude oil costs from Middle East tensions, AI-related semiconductor demand, and ongoing wage-price pass-through by firms. Producer prices have risen sharply, signaling spillover into consumer goods, while the central bank’s recent 25 basis point rate hike to 1.25% underscores vigilance against overshoot risks. These dynamics, combined with expectations of subsidy phase-outs, anchor market-implied odds favoring a modest 2026 average within the leading bracket.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
市场开放时间： Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
交易量
$61,933结束日期
2027-02-12市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETThis market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent August 2026 data showed Japan’s core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) holding at 1.9% year-over-year, with the broader core measure easing to 1.7%, both remaining below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target amid energy subsidies and base effects. Trader sentiment has coalesced around the 2.0-2.4% band for the full-year 2026 average because the BOJ’s September policy statement and July Outlook project underlying inflation accelerating above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026, driven by yen depreciation, higher import and crude oil costs from Middle East tensions, AI-related semiconductor demand, and ongoing wage-price pass-through by firms. Producer prices have risen sharply, signaling spillover into consumer goods, while the central bank’s recent 25 basis point rate hike to 1.25% underscores vigilance against overshoot risks. These dynamics, combined with expectations of subsidy phase-outs, anchor market-implied odds favoring a modest 2026 average within the leading bracket.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
交易量
$61,933结束日期
2027-02-12市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETRecent August 2026 data showed Japan’s core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) holding at 1.9% year-over-year, with the broader core measure easing to 1.7%, both remaining below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target amid energy subsidies and base effects. Trader sentiment has coalesced around the 2.0-2.4% band for the full-year 2026 average because the BOJ’s September policy statement and July Outlook project underlying inflation accelerating above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026, driven by yen depreciation, higher import and crude oil costs from Middle East tensions, AI-related semiconductor demand, and ongoing wage-price pass-through by firms. Producer prices have risen sharply, signaling spillover into consumer goods, while the central bank’s recent 25 basis point rate hike to 1.25% underscores vigilance against overshoot risks. These dynamics, combined with expectations of subsidy phase-outs, anchor market-implied odds favoring a modest 2026 average within the leading bracket.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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