Recent US labor market data show the unemployment rate holding at 4.1% through August 2026, while headline CPI inflation stood at 3.4% year-over-year, reflecting persistent price pressures from energy and shelter components. Federal Reserve projections released after the September FOMC meeting anticipate the unemployment rate at 4.1% and PCE inflation at 3.7% by year-end, supporting expectations of continued monetary policy restraint. These conditions position the overheating outcome—low unemployment paired with inflation at or above 3.5%—as the dominant market-implied scenario, with traders assigning it 78% probability. The modest 21.5% odds on a soft landing reflect uncertainty over whether inflation can moderate below 3.5% in the final quarter amid resilient demand and wage trends. Upcoming October CPI and employment reports will provide key signals before year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 78%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) <1%
$88,649 交易量
$88,649 交易量
2027-01-30
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
78%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
<1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
<1%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 78%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) <1%
$88,649 交易量
$88,649 交易量
2027-01-30
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$30,104 交易量
78%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$41,074 交易量
22%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$4,609 交易量
<1%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$12,863 交易量
<1%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent US labor market data show the unemployment rate holding at 4.1% through August 2026, while headline CPI inflation stood at 3.4% year-over-year, reflecting persistent price pressures from energy and shelter components. Federal Reserve projections released after the September FOMC meeting anticipate the unemployment rate at 4.1% and PCE inflation at 3.7% by year-end, supporting expectations of continued monetary policy restraint. These conditions position the overheating outcome—low unemployment paired with inflation at or above 3.5%—as the dominant market-implied scenario, with traders assigning it 78% probability. The modest 21.5% odds on a soft landing reflect uncertainty over whether inflation can moderate below 3.5% in the final quarter amid resilient demand and wage trends. Upcoming October CPI and employment reports will provide key signals before year-end resolution.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
市场开放时间： Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$88,649结束日期
2027-01-31市场开放时间
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETThe unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent US labor market data show the unemployment rate holding at 4.1% through August 2026, while headline CPI inflation stood at 3.4% year-over-year, reflecting persistent price pressures from energy and shelter components. Federal Reserve projections released after the September FOMC meeting anticipate the unemployment rate at 4.1% and PCE inflation at 3.7% by year-end, supporting expectations of continued monetary policy restraint. These conditions position the overheating outcome—low unemployment paired with inflation at or above 3.5%—as the dominant market-implied scenario, with traders assigning it 78% probability. The modest 21.5% odds on a soft landing reflect uncertainty over whether inflation can moderate below 3.5% in the final quarter amid resilient demand and wage trends. Upcoming October CPI and employment reports will provide key signals before year-end resolution.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
交易量
$88,649结束日期
2027-01-31市场开放时间
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETRecent US labor market data show the unemployment rate holding at 4.1% through August 2026, while headline CPI inflation stood at 3.4% year-over-year, reflecting persistent price pressures from energy and shelter components. Federal Reserve projections released after the September FOMC meeting anticipate the unemployment rate at 4.1% and PCE inflation at 3.7% by year-end, supporting expectations of continued monetary policy restraint. These conditions position the overheating outcome—low unemployment paired with inflation at or above 3.5%—as the dominant market-implied scenario, with traders assigning it 78% probability. The modest 21.5% odds on a soft landing reflect uncertainty over whether inflation can moderate below 3.5% in the final quarter amid resilient demand and wage trends. Upcoming October CPI and employment reports will provide key signals before year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题