Recent upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield, currently near 4.97 percent as of September 11, 2026, stems primarily from persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2 percent target, elevated oil prices, and resilient economic data that have lifted expectations for higher-for-longer policy rates. Market-implied odds now price a substantial chance of a September FOMC rate hike, while a rising term premium reflects fiscal supply concerns and firmer real-rate expectations. Traders are focused on the September 15-16 FOMC decision and dot plot, along with upcoming CPI, PCE, and employment releases, which could determine whether yields test or exceed the 5 percent threshold before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2027年之前， 10年期美国国债收益率会有多高？
2027年之前， 10年期美国国债收益率会有多高？
$389,784 交易量
2026-12-30
5.0%
89%
5.1%
65%
5.2%
33%
5.5%
10%
5.7%
8%
6.0%
3%
$389,784 交易量
5.0%
$111,366 交易量
89%
5.1%
$3,835 交易量
65%
5.2%
$55,619 交易量
33%
5.5%
$18,277 交易量
10%
5.7%
$9,914 交易量
8%
6.0%
$8,631 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield, currently near 4.97 percent as of September 11, 2026, stems primarily from persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2 percent target, elevated oil prices, and resilient economic data that have lifted expectations for higher-for-longer policy rates. Market-implied odds now price a substantial chance of a September FOMC rate hike, while a rising term premium reflects fiscal supply concerns and firmer real-rate expectations. Traders are focused on the September 15-16 FOMC decision and dot plot, along with upcoming CPI, PCE, and employment releases, which could determine whether yields test or exceed the 5 percent threshold before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
交易量
$389,784结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield, currently near 4.97 percent as of September 11, 2026, stems primarily from persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2 percent target, elevated oil prices, and resilient economic data that have lifted expectations for higher-for-longer policy rates. Market-implied odds now price a substantial chance of a September FOMC rate hike, while a rising term premium reflects fiscal supply concerns and firmer real-rate expectations. Traders are focused on the September 15-16 FOMC decision and dot plot, along with upcoming CPI, PCE, and employment releases, which could determine whether yields test or exceed the 5 percent threshold before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$389,784结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETRecent upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield, currently near 4.97 percent as of September 11, 2026, stems primarily from persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2 percent target, elevated oil prices, and resilient economic data that have lifted expectations for higher-for-longer policy rates. Market-implied odds now price a substantial chance of a September FOMC rate hike, while a rising term premium reflects fiscal supply concerns and firmer real-rate expectations. Traders are focused on the September 15-16 FOMC decision and dot plot, along with upcoming CPI, PCE, and employment releases, which could determine whether yields test or exceed the 5 percent threshold before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题