Trader sentiment on Federal Reserve policy paths from September through December reflects closely matched probabilities across rate hike and pause sequences, with Pause–Pause–Pause leading at 27.5% amid uncertainty over inflation persistence and labor market resilience. Recent economic data releases, including CPI and employment figures, have produced mixed signals that prevent any single path from dominating, while market-implied odds embed expectations for FOMC communications balancing growth risks against price stability goals. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and December meetings, where incoming data on core inflation and nonfarm payrolls could shift consensus. These probabilities represent skin-in-the-game trader assessments rather than forecasts, highlighting how modest revisions in growth or inflation outlooks could realign the field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于连续三次按兵不动 23%
加息–暂停–暂停 21%
连加三次息 20%
加息-加息-暂停 19%
$18,957 交易量
$18,957 交易量
2026-12-09
加息-暂停-加息
14%
加息–暂停–暂停
21%
连加三次息
20%
加息-加息-暂停
19%
暂停–暂停–加息
7%
连续三次按兵不动
23%
暂停–加息–加息
7%
暂停–加息–暂停
3%
其他
7%
连续三次按兵不动 23%
加息–暂停–暂停 21%
连加三次息 20%
加息-加息-暂停 19%
$18,957 交易量
$18,957 交易量
2026-12-09
加息-暂停-加息
$775 交易量
14%
加息–暂停–暂停
$867 交易量
21%
连加三次息
$577 交易量
20%
加息-加息-暂停
$1,011 交易量
19%
暂停–暂停–加息
$927 交易量
7%
连续三次按兵不动
$12,464 交易量
23%
暂停–加息–加息
$977 交易量
7%
暂停–加息–暂停
$1,066 交易量
3%
其他
$294 交易量
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader sentiment on Federal Reserve policy paths from September through December reflects closely matched probabilities across rate hike and pause sequences, with Pause–Pause–Pause leading at 27.5% amid uncertainty over inflation persistence and labor market resilience. Recent economic data releases, including CPI and employment figures, have produced mixed signals that prevent any single path from dominating, while market-implied odds embed expectations for FOMC communications balancing growth risks against price stability goals. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and December meetings, where incoming data on core inflation and nonfarm payrolls could shift consensus. These probabilities represent skin-in-the-game trader assessments rather than forecasts, highlighting how modest revisions in growth or inflation outlooks could realign the field.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
交易量
$18,957结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader sentiment on Federal Reserve policy paths from September through December reflects closely matched probabilities across rate hike and pause sequences, with Pause–Pause–Pause leading at 27.5% amid uncertainty over inflation persistence and labor market resilience. Recent economic data releases, including CPI and employment figures, have produced mixed signals that prevent any single path from dominating, while market-implied odds embed expectations for FOMC communications balancing growth risks against price stability goals. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and December meetings, where incoming data on core inflation and nonfarm payrolls could shift consensus. These probabilities represent skin-in-the-game trader assessments rather than forecasts, highlighting how modest revisions in growth or inflation outlooks could realign the field.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$18,957结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETTrader sentiment on Federal Reserve policy paths from September through December reflects closely matched probabilities across rate hike and pause sequences, with Pause–Pause–Pause leading at 27.5% amid uncertainty over inflation persistence and labor market resilience. Recent economic data releases, including CPI and employment figures, have produced mixed signals that prevent any single path from dominating, while market-implied odds embed expectations for FOMC communications balancing growth risks against price stability goals. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and December meetings, where incoming data on core inflation and nonfarm payrolls could shift consensus. These probabilities represent skin-in-the-game trader assessments rather than forecasts, highlighting how modest revisions in growth or inflation outlooks could realign the field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题