Recent economic data and policy signals have driven strong market-implied odds of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, including elevated August CPI and PCE readings, combined with a resilient labor market—highlighted by stronger-than-expected August nonfarm payrolls—has shifted expectations. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and the June dot plot, where nine participants projected at least one 2026 increase, have reinforced trader consensus. With the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting imminent, CME FedWatch pricing reflects near-90% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at that gathering alone. These factors outweigh economist surveys favoring a hold, as real-money markets price in tighter policy to address sticky price pressures amid supply shocks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
87% 概率
$9,202,779 交易量
$9,202,779 交易量
2026-12-08
是
87% 概率
$9,202,779 交易量
$9,202,779 交易量
2026-12-08
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent economic data and policy signals have driven strong market-implied odds of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, including elevated August CPI and PCE readings, combined with a resilient labor market—highlighted by stronger-than-expected August nonfarm payrolls—has shifted expectations. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and the June dot plot, where nine participants projected at least one 2026 increase, have reinforced trader consensus. With the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting imminent, CME FedWatch pricing reflects near-90% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at that gathering alone. These factors outweigh economist surveys favoring a hold, as real-money markets price in tighter policy to address sticky price pressures amid supply shocks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
交易量
$9,202,779结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent economic data and policy signals have driven strong market-implied odds of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, including elevated August CPI and PCE readings, combined with a resilient labor market—highlighted by stronger-than-expected August nonfarm payrolls—has shifted expectations. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and the June dot plot, where nine participants projected at least one 2026 increase, have reinforced trader consensus. With the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting imminent, CME FedWatch pricing reflects near-90% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at that gathering alone. These factors outweigh economist surveys favoring a hold, as real-money markets price in tighter policy to address sticky price pressures amid supply shocks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$9,202,779结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETRecent economic data and policy signals have driven strong market-implied odds of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, including elevated August CPI and PCE readings, combined with a resilient labor market—highlighted by stronger-than-expected August nonfarm payrolls—has shifted expectations. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and the June dot plot, where nine participants projected at least one 2026 increase, have reinforced trader consensus. With the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting imminent, CME FedWatch pricing reflects near-90% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at that gathering alone. These factors outweigh economist surveys favoring a hold, as real-money markets price in tighter policy to address sticky price pressures amid supply shocks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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