The closure of the Department of Justice criminal probe into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a federal judge’s ruling that prosecutors presented no evidence of wrongdoing beyond policy disagreements with the administration, underpins the 95.6% market-implied probability for “No.” The inquiry centered on Powell’s congressional testimony regarding Federal Reserve headquarters renovation cost overruns and was widely viewed as an effort to influence monetary policy. With Powell’s chairmanship concluded in May 2026 and no active indictments, regulatory actions, or credible allegations remaining, trader consensus reflects strong institutional protections for senior central bankers and the absence of prosecutable conduct. Tail risks, such as an unprecedented reopening of the matter by the inspector general or novel political charges before year-end, remain remote given the prior evidentiary shortfalls and legal safeguards.