Recent inflation data and fiscal supply pressures have kept the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.83-4.85% as of September 10, 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before 2027. Persistent core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with elevated term premium reflecting heavy Treasury issuance and debt levels exceeding $40 trillion, has driven yields higher from August lows near 4.6%. Market-implied odds now price reduced Fed easing or potential hikes, reinforced by hawkish signals from Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole. Upcoming September 10-11 CPI and PPI releases, followed by the September 16 FOMC meeting, will shape near-term rate path revisions and any further yield compression.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$250,469 交易量
2026-12-30
3.9%
9%
3.8%
7%
3.7%
5%
3.6%
5%
3.5%
5%
3.0%
3%
2.0%
2%
1.0%
2%
$250,469 交易量
3.9%
$50,070 交易量
9%
3.8%
$52,865 交易量
7%
3.7%
$28,035 交易量
5%
3.6%
$6,185 交易量
5%
3.5%
$39,256 交易量
5%
3.0%
$1,162 交易量
3%
2.0%
$564 交易量
2%
1.0%
$40,572 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent inflation data and fiscal supply pressures have kept the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.83-4.85% as of September 10, 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before 2027. Persistent core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with elevated term premium reflecting heavy Treasury issuance and debt levels exceeding $40 trillion, has driven yields higher from August lows near 4.6%. Market-implied odds now price reduced Fed easing or potential hikes, reinforced by hawkish signals from Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole. Upcoming September 10-11 CPI and PPI releases, followed by the September 16 FOMC meeting, will shape near-term rate path revisions and any further yield compression.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
交易量
$250,469结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent inflation data and fiscal supply pressures have kept the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.83-4.85% as of September 10, 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before 2027. Persistent core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with elevated term premium reflecting heavy Treasury issuance and debt levels exceeding $40 trillion, has driven yields higher from August lows near 4.6%. Market-implied odds now price reduced Fed easing or potential hikes, reinforced by hawkish signals from Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole. Upcoming September 10-11 CPI and PPI releases, followed by the September 16 FOMC meeting, will shape near-term rate path revisions and any further yield compression.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$250,469结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETRecent inflation data and fiscal supply pressures have kept the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.83-4.85% as of September 10, 2026, limiting expectations for significant declines before 2027. Persistent core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with elevated term premium reflecting heavy Treasury issuance and debt levels exceeding $40 trillion, has driven yields higher from August lows near 4.6%. Market-implied odds now price reduced Fed easing or potential hikes, reinforced by hawkish signals from Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole. Upcoming September 10-11 CPI and PPI releases, followed by the September 16 FOMC meeting, will shape near-term rate path revisions and any further yield compression.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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