Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, has kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings, with the latter producing a 9–3 vote and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. A stable labor market—unemployment near 4.1–4.2% and recent nonfarm payrolls exceeding expectations—has further supported the case for holding or tightening rather than easing, creating closely matched trader odds between a full pause sequence and “Other” outcomes that incorporate potential September hikes. Recent data releases and Fed communications, including Chair Warsh’s emphasis on price stability, have kept the September 15–16 decision as the key swing factor, with market-implied paths reflecting uncertainty over whether disinflation will accelerate enough to rule out further tightening this year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Other 64%
Pause–Pause–Pause 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$845,568 交易量
$845,568 交易量
2026-09-15
Pause–Pause–Pause
36%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
64%
Other 64%
Pause–Pause–Pause 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$845,568 交易量
$845,568 交易量
2026-09-15
Pause–Pause–Pause
$327,196 交易量
36%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$100,580 交易量
<1%
Other
$361,915 交易量
64%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, has kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings, with the latter producing a 9–3 vote and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. A stable labor market—unemployment near 4.1–4.2% and recent nonfarm payrolls exceeding expectations—has further supported the case for holding or tightening rather than easing, creating closely matched trader odds between a full pause sequence and “Other” outcomes that incorporate potential September hikes. Recent data releases and Fed communications, including Chair Warsh’s emphasis on price stability, have kept the September 15–16 decision as the key swing factor, with market-implied paths reflecting uncertainty over whether disinflation will accelerate enough to rule out further tightening this year.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$845,568结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, has kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings, with the latter producing a 9–3 vote and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. A stable labor market—unemployment near 4.1–4.2% and recent nonfarm payrolls exceeding expectations—has further supported the case for holding or tightening rather than easing, creating closely matched trader odds between a full pause sequence and “Other” outcomes that incorporate potential September hikes. Recent data releases and Fed communications, including Chair Warsh’s emphasis on price stability, have kept the September 15–16 decision as the key swing factor, with market-implied paths reflecting uncertainty over whether disinflation will accelerate enough to rule out further tightening this year.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$845,568结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, has kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings, with the latter producing a 9–3 vote and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. A stable labor market—unemployment near 4.1–4.2% and recent nonfarm payrolls exceeding expectations—has further supported the case for holding or tightening rather than easing, creating closely matched trader odds between a full pause sequence and “Other” outcomes that incorporate potential September hikes. Recent data releases and Fed communications, including Chair Warsh’s emphasis on price stability, have kept the September 15–16 decision as the key swing factor, with market-implied paths reflecting uncertainty over whether disinflation will accelerate enough to rule out further tightening this year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题