Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, citing elevated PCE inflation near 3.7% and limited progress on underlying trends, have lifted market-implied odds of a September FOMC rate hike to around 60%, driving the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.83-4.85% as of September 9—the highest levels since late 2023. Persistent oil price pressures above $100 from Middle East tensions, elevated term premiums amid heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns, and stronger-than-expected demand at the latest 10-year auction have reinforced upward pressure on yields. With the curve steepening and real rates rising, traders are watching incoming CPI and labor data for any signs that could ease policy expectations before month-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$18,958 交易量
2026-09-30
低于4.76%
41%
低于4.73%
34%
低于4.70%
13%
低于4.67%
11%
低于4.64%
12%
低于4.61%
4%
低于4.56%
5%
低于4.51%
7%
低于4.45%
3%
$18,958 交易量
低于4.76%
$7,559 交易量
41%
低于4.73%
$1,219 交易量
34%
低于4.70%
$3,141 交易量
13%
低于4.67%
$220 交易量
11%
低于4.64%
$1,638 交易量
12%
低于4.61%
$2,030 交易量
4%
低于4.56%
$763 交易量
5%
低于4.51%
$436 交易量
7%
低于4.45%
$1,953 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, citing elevated PCE inflation near 3.7% and limited progress on underlying trends, have lifted market-implied odds of a September FOMC rate hike to around 60%, driving the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.83-4.85% as of September 9—the highest levels since late 2023. Persistent oil price pressures above $100 from Middle East tensions, elevated term premiums amid heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns, and stronger-than-expected demand at the latest 10-year auction have reinforced upward pressure on yields. With the curve steepening and real rates rising, traders are watching incoming CPI and labor data for any signs that could ease policy expectations before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
交易量
$18,958结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, citing elevated PCE inflation near 3.7% and limited progress on underlying trends, have lifted market-implied odds of a September FOMC rate hike to around 60%, driving the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.83-4.85% as of September 9—the highest levels since late 2023. Persistent oil price pressures above $100 from Middle East tensions, elevated term premiums amid heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns, and stronger-than-expected demand at the latest 10-year auction have reinforced upward pressure on yields. With the curve steepening and real rates rising, traders are watching incoming CPI and labor data for any signs that could ease policy expectations before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$18,958结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRecent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, citing elevated PCE inflation near 3.7% and limited progress on underlying trends, have lifted market-implied odds of a September FOMC rate hike to around 60%, driving the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.83-4.85% as of September 9—the highest levels since late 2023. Persistent oil price pressures above $100 from Middle East tensions, elevated term premiums amid heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns, and stronger-than-expected demand at the latest 10-year auction have reinforced upward pressure on yields. With the curve steepening and real rates rising, traders are watching incoming CPI and labor data for any signs that could ease policy expectations before month-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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