Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by energy price pressures from Middle East developments, has kept the federal funds rate anchored at 3.50–3.75% after the July 29 hold. The July FOMC’s 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, along with subsequent minutes highlighting risks of further tightening, has shifted trader pricing toward at least one rate increase across the September 15–16 or October 27–28 meetings. Stable labor market conditions near 4.1–4.3% unemployment have reduced near-term cut expectations to negligible levels, while futures-implied paths and the 62.5% market-implied probability on “Other” reflect hawkish consensus amid elevated core PCE readings. The September decision remains the key near-term catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Other 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 33%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$748,700 交易量
$748,700 交易量
2026-10-28
Pause–Pause–Pause
33%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
63%
Other 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 33%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$748,700 交易量
$748,700 交易量
2026-10-28
Pause–Pause–Pause
$251,168 交易量
33%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$62,636 交易量
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$43,317 交易量
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$28,302 交易量
<1%
Other
$319,789 交易量
63%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by energy price pressures from Middle East developments, has kept the federal funds rate anchored at 3.50–3.75% after the July 29 hold. The July FOMC’s 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, along with subsequent minutes highlighting risks of further tightening, has shifted trader pricing toward at least one rate increase across the September 15–16 or October 27–28 meetings. Stable labor market conditions near 4.1–4.3% unemployment have reduced near-term cut expectations to negligible levels, while futures-implied paths and the 62.5% market-implied probability on “Other” reflect hawkish consensus amid elevated core PCE readings. The September decision remains the key near-term catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
交易量
$748,700结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by energy price pressures from Middle East developments, has kept the federal funds rate anchored at 3.50–3.75% after the July 29 hold. The July FOMC’s 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, along with subsequent minutes highlighting risks of further tightening, has shifted trader pricing toward at least one rate increase across the September 15–16 or October 27–28 meetings. Stable labor market conditions near 4.1–4.3% unemployment have reduced near-term cut expectations to negligible levels, while futures-implied paths and the 62.5% market-implied probability on “Other” reflect hawkish consensus amid elevated core PCE readings. The September decision remains the key near-term catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$748,700结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by energy price pressures from Middle East developments, has kept the federal funds rate anchored at 3.50–3.75% after the July 29 hold. The July FOMC’s 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, along with subsequent minutes highlighting risks of further tightening, has shifted trader pricing toward at least one rate increase across the September 15–16 or October 27–28 meetings. Stable labor market conditions near 4.1–4.3% unemployment have reduced near-term cut expectations to negligible levels, while futures-implied paths and the 62.5% market-implied probability on “Other” reflect hawkish consensus amid elevated core PCE readings. The September decision remains the key near-term catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题