Recent surges in oil prices above $100 per barrel amid Middle East tensions have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.83-4.84% as of September 9, 2026, its highest level since late 2023, as markets price in renewed inflation risks and roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. Resilient U.S. economic data, including stronger-than-expected payrolls, alongside elevated fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP and heavy Treasury and corporate issuance tied to AI infrastructure, have lifted term premiums and long-end yields. Strong auction demand for recent 10-year notes provided some offset, but traders are watching producer price data, the upcoming FOMC decision, and any de-escalation in energy markets for shifts in the implied rate path through 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？
2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？
$336,365 交易量
2026-12-30
5.0%
71%
5.2%
26%
5.5%
14%
5.7%
7%
6.0%
3%
$336,365 交易量
5.0%
$95,257 交易量
71%
5.2%
$35,203 交易量
26%
5.5%
$11,589 交易量
14%
5.7%
$4,686 交易量
7%
6.0%
$7,486 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent surges in oil prices above $100 per barrel amid Middle East tensions have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.83-4.84% as of September 9, 2026, its highest level since late 2023, as markets price in renewed inflation risks and roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. Resilient U.S. economic data, including stronger-than-expected payrolls, alongside elevated fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP and heavy Treasury and corporate issuance tied to AI infrastructure, have lifted term premiums and long-end yields. Strong auction demand for recent 10-year notes provided some offset, but traders are watching producer price data, the upcoming FOMC decision, and any de-escalation in energy markets for shifts in the implied rate path through 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
交易量
$336,365結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent surges in oil prices above $100 per barrel amid Middle East tensions have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.83-4.84% as of September 9, 2026, its highest level since late 2023, as markets price in renewed inflation risks and roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. Resilient U.S. economic data, including stronger-than-expected payrolls, alongside elevated fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP and heavy Treasury and corporate issuance tied to AI infrastructure, have lifted term premiums and long-end yields. Strong auction demand for recent 10-year notes provided some offset, but traders are watching producer price data, the upcoming FOMC decision, and any de-escalation in energy markets for shifts in the implied rate path through 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$336,365結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETRecent surges in oil prices above $100 per barrel amid Middle East tensions have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.83-4.84% as of September 9, 2026, its highest level since late 2023, as markets price in renewed inflation risks and roughly 60% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. Resilient U.S. economic data, including stronger-than-expected payrolls, alongside elevated fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP and heavy Treasury and corporate issuance tied to AI infrastructure, have lifted term premiums and long-end yields. Strong auction demand for recent 10-year notes provided some offset, but traders are watching producer price data, the upcoming FOMC decision, and any de-escalation in energy markets for shifts in the implied rate path through 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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