**Persistent inflation pressures and the Federal Reserve’s September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range are the main drivers behind current market-implied odds for the January 2027 FOMC decision.** August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with energy prices accounting for much of the headline acceleration while core measures held at 2.4% year-over-year. The labor market remains stable near 4.1% unemployment, supporting the FOMC’s updated dot plot showing most participants favoring additional tightening by year-end and a 4.15% median funds rate projection for 2026. Traders price the highest probability on no change at the January meeting (57.5%), followed by a further 25 bp increase (33.5%), reflecting expectations that any remaining hikes will occur in the October and December 2026 meetings ahead of potential stabilization in early 2027. Key upcoming data releases and the next two FOMC decisions will shape whether these probabilities shift.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於No change 57%
加息25個基點 34%
25 bps decrease 5%
50+ bps decrease 2.9%
$94,628 交易量
$94,628 交易量
2027-01-27
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
5%
No change
57%
加息25個基點
34%
超過50個基點的加息
3%
No change 57%
加息25個基點 34%
25 bps decrease 5%
50+ bps decrease 2.9%
$94,628 交易量
$94,628 交易量
2027-01-27
50+ bps decrease
$15,221 交易量
3%
25 bps decrease
$22,970 交易量
5%
No change
$21,904 交易量
57%
加息25個基點
$28,460 交易量
34%
超過50個基點的加息
$6,072 交易量
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation pressures and the Federal Reserve’s September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range are the main drivers behind current market-implied odds for the January 2027 FOMC decision.**
August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with energy prices accounting for much of the headline acceleration while core measures held at 2.4% year-over-year. The labor market remains stable near 4.1% unemployment, supporting the FOMC’s updated dot plot showing most participants favoring additional tightening by year-end and a 4.15% median funds rate projection for 2026. Traders price the highest probability on no change at the January meeting (57.5%), followed by a further 25 bp increase (33.5%), reflecting expectations that any remaining hikes will occur in the October and December 2026 meetings ahead of potential stabilization in early 2027. Key upcoming data releases and the next two FOMC decisions will shape whether these probabilities shift.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
交易量
$94,628結束日期
2027-01-27市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation pressures and the Federal Reserve’s September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range are the main drivers behind current market-implied odds for the January 2027 FOMC decision.**
August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with energy prices accounting for much of the headline acceleration while core measures held at 2.4% year-over-year. The labor market remains stable near 4.1% unemployment, supporting the FOMC’s updated dot plot showing most participants favoring additional tightening by year-end and a 4.15% median funds rate projection for 2026. Traders price the highest probability on no change at the January meeting (57.5%), followed by a further 25 bp increase (33.5%), reflecting expectations that any remaining hikes will occur in the October and December 2026 meetings ahead of potential stabilization in early 2027. Key upcoming data releases and the next two FOMC decisions will shape whether these probabilities shift.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$94,628結束日期
2027-01-27市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET**Persistent inflation pressures and the Federal Reserve’s September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range are the main drivers behind current market-implied odds for the January 2027 FOMC decision.** August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with energy prices accounting for much of the headline acceleration while core measures held at 2.4% year-over-year. The labor market remains stable near 4.1% unemployment, supporting the FOMC’s updated dot plot showing most participants favoring additional tightening by year-end and a 4.15% median funds rate projection for 2026. Traders price the highest probability on no change at the January meeting (57.5%), followed by a further 25 bp increase (33.5%), reflecting expectations that any remaining hikes will occur in the October and December 2026 meetings ahead of potential stabilization in early 2027. Key upcoming data releases and the next two FOMC decisions will shape whether these probabilities shift.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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